Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Internat’nl Trade (Oct.) Employment outperformed expectations last month, but the additional coronavirus restrictions imposed since the November LFS survey was carried out lead us to think it will fall back in December. 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Latest restrictions unlikely to prompt further loosening The Bank of Canada’s forecasts already assumed a renewed hit to GDP from a further wave of COVID-19, so the latest restrictions have probably not altered its assessment of the outlook. We would... 2nd December 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Economy to recover strongly after weak end to 2020 The recovery is set to go into reverse in December amid the latest coronavirus restrictions, and we now think GDP will stagnate over the first quarter. But the high effectiveness of the first COVID-19... 2nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 & Sep.) GDP expanded by a record 40.5% annualised in the third quarter, as the first lockdowns were lifted, but that still left it 5.3% below its pre-pandemic level. Some more lost ground appears to have been... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government plans investment of up to 4.3% of GDP The government announced today that it expects to spend an additional $50bn this fiscal year to combat the damage from the second wave of the coronavirus. It also laid out plans for an investment... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Freeland to lay out investment plans There is now more pressure on Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to use the fall fiscal update next week to announce short-term measures to support the economy, but we still expect her to outline how... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Spending to underperform, but only in the near term Retail sales are likely to fall further behind those in the US amid the latest coronavirus-related restrictions, particularly because the Canadian data do a worse job at capturing online sales... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment to decline in December The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market shrugs off worsening outbreaks Home sales remained high in October while house price inflation accelerated. While renewed lockdowns could soon dent home sales, we doubt they would lower prices. 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in September was much better than expected, but sales appear to have stagnated in October and the prospect of restrictions being imposed on all non-essential... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update “Circuit breaker” lockdowns the key risk to activity The high-frequency data suggest the targeted restrictions imposed last month have not weighed much on broader activity, but worsening COVID-19 outbreaks raise the risk that “circuit breaker” lockdowns... 19th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The unexpected rise in inflation to 0.7% in October, from 0.5%, was mainly due to higher food prices. While renewed restrictions related to COVID-19 could cause prices for some items to increase in... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The 1.5% m/m rise in manufacturing sales in September reversed the 1.4% fall in August, but still left sales down 6% y/y. While the business surveys point to another month-on-month rise in October... 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Light at the end of a darkening tunnel The increased likelihood that an effective vaccine will be rolled out next year could eventually lead to a situation in which Canada’s economy outperforms, but the swift U-turn this week on the easing... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Vaccine could reduce size of further fiscal support The rollout of an effective vaccine in early 2021 would cause us to pull up our growth forecasts for next year, but the boost to GDP in 2022 could be much smaller if the improved near-term outlook... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Ontario eases restrictions and provides more stimulus The easing of restrictions in Ontario and the stimulus announced in the province’s delayed 2020 budget bode well for activity, but the recovery could yet be upended by the further spread of the... 6th November 2020 · 4 mins read
