Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The drop in employment in December would have been even larger were it not for the early timing of the survey reference week. With further restrictions imposed across the country since December’s... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) Exports rose in November and the recent improvement in the business surveys bodes well for growth in the coming months, but the lockdowns suggest that GDP will still edge down in the first quarter. 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update House prices to rise further in 2021 The wide range of forecasts for house prices in 2021 shows that there is still a lot of uncertainty ahead. Nevertheless, given strong demand and low mortgage rates, our view is that prices will... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The economy continued to recover at a decent pace in October and November despite the various restrictions imposed on high-risk services, but the broader lockdowns coming into effect in Ontario and... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Fresh lockdowns present new downside risks The province-wide shutdowns recently announced in Ontario and Quebec raise the downside risks to our near-term forecasts, although the start of the coronavirus vaccination program last week provides a... 22nd December 2020 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Ten potential surprises for Canada in 2021 It is not just a strong recovery that could surprise some market participants in 2021; a change to the Bank of Canada’s mandate, a snap election, and several other events could also alter the economic... 21st December 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More COVID restrictions coming The provincial government in Quebec this week announced an 18-day “circuit breaker” lockdown, and the authorities in Ontario seem to be planning something similar. We assumed further measures were... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales rose by 0.4% m/m in October, although the sharp falls in gasoline and clothing sales imply that the worsening coronavirus outbreak was beginning to bite. Even if retail sales continue to... 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Inflation to be above 2% for most of 2021 Recent developments suggest that inflation will recover more strongly in 2021 than we previously thought. We now expect inflation to be above 2% for most of the year, before dropping back in 2022. 17th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Nov.) House price inflation rose to 9% in November and is likely to surpass 10% in the first quarter. We expect house price inflation to slow sharply after that, but prices should keep rising throughout... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The higher-than-expected rate of inflation in November was mainly a statistical quirk resulting from continued difficulties in collecting price data for travel tours. The same effect could cause... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What if households unleash their savings? Due to lower spending and the generosity of government transfers, households are set to save $200bn more in 2020 than in 2019. With that rise equivalent to 14% of consumption, there are upside risks... 15th December 2020 · 11 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) Manufacturing sales only edged up in October and the disruption from the coronavirus at home and abroad is likely to hold back growth in the next few months, but we are more positive about prospects... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie flies despite Bank’s pledge to keep yields low The Canadian dollar jumped to a two-year high this week and, despite the pledge from the Bank of Canada that it will keep rates low across the yield curve, we think there is still scope for further... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank will probably stick to implicit yield curve control The key change to the Bank of Canada’s policy statement today was its commitment to “keep interest rates low across the yield curve”. This is in line with our view that, even as the economy rebounds... 9th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada stands out with new approach to fiscal policy Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland hinted this week that the government will continue to provide fiscal stimulus until the economy reaches full employment. This is a far cry from concerns elsewhere... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
