Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) & International Trade (Dec.) While the slump in employment in January suggests GDP growth will slow sharply this quarter, the unexpected rise in hours worked supports our view that GDP will at least continue to increase, and the... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Natural resources sector to offset weakness elsewhere The natural resources sector looks set to recover sooner than we previously thought, which should help to prevent GDP from falling in the first quarter despite the coronavirus restrictions and vaccine... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Reliance on the kindness of strangers raises problems The government found itself battling on two fronts this week, as the EU moved to restrict vaccine exports and US President Joe Biden sought to strengthen ‘Buy American’ provisions at the expense of... 29th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) A strong rise in GDP in November and an unexpected gain in December suggest that the economy carried far more momentum into the new year than expected. Nevertheless, as a result of the latest... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank unlikely to pull forward rate hike plans The Bank of Canada has signalled that it will wait until 2023 to raise interest rates and, despite our stronger forecasts for GDP growth, there are a few reasons why we expect it to stick to this... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Keystone XL cancellation highlights climate challenges The executive order signed by US President Joe Biden this week, to revoke the permit allowing the Keystone XL pipeline to cross the US border, means the project is as good as dead. This does not alter... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The tightening of the coronavirus restrictions in November helped boost retail sales, as consumers substituted spending on goods for spending on services. That means the retail sales data paint too... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hints at QE taper this year The main change to the Bank of Canada’s policy statement today was a signal that the pace of its bond purchases will be reduced as the Governing Council gains confidence in the strength of the... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The unexpected fall in CPI inflation to 0.7% in December is not a sign of things to come. Instead, base effects linked to the steep falls in prices in the spring last year will push up inflation to 3%... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) Manufacturing sales dropped back again in November and renewed supply-chain disruptions suggest that the sector will continue to struggle in the coming months. 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccine availability to remain limited in first quarter The government confirmed this week that vaccine availability will remain limited in the first quarter, so there is little chance of the economic recovery beginning any sooner than we currently... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be... 14th January 2021 · 20 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on hold as it upgrades its forecasts The Bank of Canada is set to upgrade its growth forecasts next week, despite the deterioration of the near-term outlook, so speculation that it might cut interest rates looks overdone. 13th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Business & Consumer Outlook Surveys (Q4) The fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS) showed that firms’ hiring and investment intentions are now back to pre-pandemic norms, which bodes well for the economic recovery this year. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly A slow start in the race to vaccinate Ontario and Quebec extended their coronavirus restrictions this week and, given that infections are still rising and logistical problems are holding up the vaccination process, it seems likely that... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
