Canada Rapid Response Manufacturing Sales (May 2024) The continued rise in manufacturing sales and new orders suggests that the sector gained some momentum in the second quarter. However, we expect that strength to fade this quarter. 15th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rate cuts will offer relief to housing this year The latest housing market data paint an almost ideal picture for the Bank of Canada, with activity improving, but little sign of a surge in house prices that could derail the downward trend in core... 12th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth set to slow Still elevated wage growth is partly due to earlier large gains in public sector pay, which are unlikely to be repeated. There are tentative signs that private sector wage growth is slowing, and the... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness boosts odds of another rate cut There was little to be encouraged by this week, with labour market conditions continuing to soften, the business surveys weak and the real estate board data pointing to a risk of renewed falls in... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun. 2024) The modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate to 6.4% in June raise the chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again this month, and makes us more confident in our... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still data dependent The May CPI data were a step back after the run of soft core price readings in the first quarter. The broader evidence stills seems supportive of a July interest rate cut, but the next CPI release for... 28th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling... 27th June 2024 · 46 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower rates to drive stronger GDP growth next year Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in... 26th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May 2024) The stronger monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in May will give the Bank some cause for concern after starting its loosening cycle in June. However, with some of that... 25th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank leaves its options open The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s June meeting reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely but gave little away about how quickly the Bank will move. With another two... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jun. 2024) The housing market was soft in May, with sales and prices edging down, but we expect conditions to improve over the rest of the year as the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates further and mortgage... 17th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Households deleveraging only slowly The household debt-to-income ratio fell again in the first quarter, albeit because incomes continued to rise at a faster pace than debt levels. Although the aggregate situation is slowly improving... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
