Canada Economics Weekly Economy more reliant than ever on housing The fourth-quarter national accounts showed that residential investment now accounts for a record share of GDP. While some say this is a sign that tighter policy will soon be needed, we doubt the Bank... 5th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The 8.1% m/m surge in exports in January was partly due to temporary factors but, amid strong global demand for commodities, exports are doing better than we expected a few months ago. 5th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to turn forward guidance up to eleven Although the economy has been stronger than expected, we doubt that the Bank of Canada is about to become more hawkish. Instead, we think the Bank will use its policy statement next week to double... 3rd March 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4) The 9.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was three times as strong as the consensus forecast from just a couple of months ago. The preliminary estimate that GDP grew by 0.5% m/m in January... 2nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank likely to talk rate expectations back down The surge in yields this week occurred despite another signal from the Bank of Canada that it plans to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels for a long time. This has led to suggestions that the... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update We expect oil to be the key driver for the loonie Given our latest forecast for oil prices, we now expect the Canadian dollar to rise further in 2021 than we previously thought, but to drop back a bit in 2022. 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Markets jumping the gun on Bank of Canada rate hikes We think market participants are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada in 2022, particularly as Governor Tiff Macklem again signalled yesterday that... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Oil sector strength mitigating weakness elsewhere The pandemic has thrown up many surprises for the Canadian economy, the latest of which is the speed at which oil production has rebounded. Even though global fuel demand remains weak amid ongoing... 23rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Immigration target unlikely to be met this year The government signalled its commitment to its new immigration target this week, but disruption from the pandemic will probably prevent immigration from picking up meaningfully until at least the end... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Lower-than-usual holiday spending caused retail sales to fall by more than 3% m/m in December and, amid the latest lockdowns, the preliminary estimate shows sales fell by almost as much again in... 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Jan.) The further slowdown in the monthly pace of gains in January suggests house price inflation will soon peak at a little more than 10%. 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing market to lose momentum as bond yields rise Record low inventory should continue to drive strong house price gains in the first half of the year, but we expect house price inflation to slow beyond then as bond yields and mortgage rates start to... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation rebounded to 1.0% in January and is set to rise to 3% or higher in April. That spike will mainly reflect base effects linked to the sharp falls in energy prices early last year but, as the... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market shrugged off lockdowns in January The housing market has largely shrugged off the latest phase of the coronavirus restrictions. If anything, the data imply there are upside risks to our already above-consensus forecasts for house... 12th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Easing of restrictions to gradually lift employment The easing of the coronavirus restrictions will support a rebound in employment, but the recovery is likely to be slow going for the next few months due to limited progress with vaccinations. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy should avoid first-quarter contraction The unexpected rise in hours worked in January, and the jump in oil exports to the US, support our view that GDP should continue to expand this quarter, albeit at a much slower pace. 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
