Canada Economic Outlook Vaccinations and policy stimulus to drive recovery The third wave of COVID-19 means that the restrictions on activity will be in place for longer than we assumed, but the economy is poised to recover strongly once vaccinations reach a critical mass... 8th April 2021 · 19 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The global semiconductor shortage and severe winter weather in the US contributed to the falls in exports and imports in February, with the auto sector hit especially hard. Those shortages look set to... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Third wave prompts new restrictions The data this week showed that the economy made a stronger start to the year than we previously thought, but the restrictions now being imposed to fight the third wave of the coronavirus suggest that... 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The economy’s stronger-than-expected performance at the start of 2021 bodes well for the recovery and is likely to further convince the Bank of Canada that it is time to reduce the pace of its asset... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bond yields to rise as Bank cuts purchases Recent global developments and the signal this week from the Bank of Canada, that it is likely to cut its asset purchases sooner than we expected, lead us to think that Canadian bond yields will rise... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Booming housing market a challenge for the Bank The housing market has gathered more momentum in the past month and, if this continues, could prompt the Bank to tighten policy sooner than we anticipate. The Teranet measure of house price growth... 24th March 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to cut the pace of its asset purchases next month The Bank of Canada seems to have signalled that it will reduce the pace of its government bond purchases at its next meeting in April. We now expect it to bring its net purchases to zero by the end of... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccinations set to ramp up While the government hinted this week that the vaccination program could be completed before the target of September, the threat of vaccine nationalism elsewhere means that, with Canada reliant on... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The fall in retail sales in January was smaller than first indicated and the preliminary estimate for February suggests that, as lockdowns were lifted, most of the decline over the prior two months... 19th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank unlikely to flinch as inflation moves above target We expect inflation to hit 3.5% in April and then to sit at the upper end of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range for most of the rest of the year. Given the likelihood that inflation will drop... 18th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The modest rise in inflation to 1.1% in February is set to be followed by much sharper increases to more than 2% this month and to more than 3% in April, as energy inflation surges. 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The manufacturing sector made a strong start to 2021, despite the major disruption to the auto industry from the global microchip shortage, as sales across the natural resource sectors rose sharply. 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to upgrade forecasts in April The Bank of Canada looks set to upgrade its GDP forecasts in April, but we would be surprised if it turned much more hawkish with regards to policy. 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The strong rebound in employment in February almost fully made up for the losses in December and January. While the pace of gains is now likely to slow, employment should continue to rise as the... 12th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank remains committed to keeping yields low The Bank of Canada adopted a more upbeat tone in its latest policy statement but, given the slow vaccination program and the Bank’s concerns about the labour market, we doubt this is a signal that it... 10th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Broader labour market indicators still weak While labour market conditions are probably not quite as strong as the Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of employment suggests, they do not seem to be as weak as the Survey of Payrolls, Employment... 9th March 2021 · 4 mins read
