Canada Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The much stronger rise in imports than exports in March partly reflects the unwinding of temporary factors that weighed on imports in February. Net trade contributed positively to first-quarter GDP... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem unfazed by upside risks to inflation Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the Bank of Canada remains committed to keeping interest rates low so long as the labour market remains weak, even if the upside risks to inflation... 30th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) At 0.4% m/m in February, GDP growth was a bit weaker than Stats Can first thought but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a much larger 0.9% m/m rise in GDP in March, first-quarter growth... 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction boom raises questions about supply The ratio of homes under construction to population growth is at a record high, reflecting both the strength of housing starts and the weakness of immigration. While the boom in construction might... 29th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The gains in retail sales in February and March are likely to be reversed this month, but the high level of consumer confidence suggests spending will recover quickly once the coronavirus restrictions... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank raises forecasts as government boosts support Reflecting the additional fiscal support confirmed in the 2021 Budget this week, the Bank of Canada has raised its GDP growth forecasts to be closer to our own. Nevertheless, we do not expect the Bank... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank trims asset purchases, may hike in late 2022 The Bank of Canada’s decision to trim its asset purchases and pull forward its guidance on interest rates confirms that it has become more upbeat about the economic outlook. We expect it to bring its... 21st April 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Despite a muted monthly rise in prices, inflation jumped to 2.2% in March due to base effects. It will surpass 3% in April for the same reason. While inflation should then ease, we expect it to remain... 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Mar.) House price inflation according to the Teranet index surpassed 10% in March for the first time since 2017, and the high sales-to-new listing ratio implies it will continue to accelerate. 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government sets out stimulus worth 4.4% of GDP The additional stimulus outlined in today’s Budget was in line with our expectations and, while a few of the proposals will raise eyebrows, the total package should help to support a strong economic... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) The 1.6% m/m fall in manufacturing sales in February was primarily due to the negative effect on the auto sector of the global semiconductor shortage. While that shortage has persisted into March and... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to trim asset purchases despite third wave The Bank of Canada is set to cut the pace of its asset purchases next week. While it will also upgrade its GDP forecasts, we expect it to make an offsetting change to its estimate of the economy’s... 14th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update House prices vulnerable to higher interest rates House prices look increasingly vulnerable to future rises in interest rates. While the economy coped well the last time the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes shook the housing market in 2017 and 2018, the... 13th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys suggest that investment and consumption will recover strongly in the coming year, and are another reason to expect the Bank to trim its asset purchases next week... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly OSFI waters down the punch The proposal by the financial regulator OSFI, to raise the qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages, is unlikely to weigh on house prices. But by reducing the share of highly-leveraged borrowers, it... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The 303,000 jump in employment in March was far stronger than expected. While some of the gains will be reversed this month due to the tightening of coronavirus restrictions, that will prove temporary... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
