Canada Economics Weekly GDP to surpass pre-pandemic level in July The upward revision in March and smaller-than-expected fall in April mean that GDP is now on track to surpass its pre-pandemic level in July, a couple of months earlier than we previously thought... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) Exports were weaker than expected in May, but that was largely due to the ongoing global semiconductor shortage rather than weakening external demand. And with the rise in imports boding well for... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Labour shortages set to intensify Canadian firms are not currently suffering from labour shortages to the same extent as those in the US but, with immigration still muted, the issue is likely to get worse as the economy continues to... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m decline in GDP in April was smaller than Stats Can initially suggested and implies that, despite the third coronavirus wave, the economy held up relatively well. We now expect second... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber The dramatic fall in lumber prices over the past month has captured a lot of attention, but it is the more gradual rally in oil prices that is likely to have the greatest bearing on the economic... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Price and wage expectations continue to rise The latest CFIB Business Barometer shows that, as the re-opening process got underway, firms’ selling price expectations surged in June. Firms now expect to raise their prices by an average of 4.7%... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The recent lockdowns caused retail sales to plunge by 5.7% in April and the preliminary estimate implies they fell sharply in May as well. The outlook is much brighter, with the record level of... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights could keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new weights for the June CPI means that some of the item-specific price increases that we expect will not push up headline inflation by as much as we thought. Nevertheless, there... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Higher oil production to weigh on prices in 2022 Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The rise in inflation to 3.6% in May was driven by several factors including ongoing global supply constraints, the booming housing market, and the start of the re-opening process. While inflation is... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) Manufacturing sales volumes slumped 3.3% m/m in April, as the disruption from the global semiconductor shortage intensified. While sales volumes should gradually rise again from May, it will be some... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank unconcerned about inflation outlook The communications from the Bank of Canada this week confirmed that it is not worried about inflation surpassing its forecasts for this year, and that it remains committed to keeping the policy rate... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank likely to taper purchases again in July The Bank did not provide any new hints about the direction of policy in its statement today but, with GDP likely to start growing strongly again this month as the coronavirus restrictions are lifted... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The global semiconductor shortage weighed heavily on exports and imports of motor vehicles in April and this disruption continued in May. While exports elsewhere performed better, the broad-based... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Elevated residential investment may concern the Bank The latest data suggest residential investment, which rose to more than 10% of GDP in the first quarter, has already peaked. With the Bank of Canada meeting next week, the key issue for policymakers... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The continued coronavirus restrictions caused employment to fall for the second month running in May but, with re-opening now underway across the country, employment should rise strongly in the coming... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
