Canada Economics Re-opening should more than offset wildfire disruption The wildfires in British Columbia appear to have been more disruptive than we first thought, but GDP should still rise this month thanks to the easing of the coronavirus restrictions. The volume of... 29th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Consumer Prices (Jun.) Consumer prices increased only marginally in June but, as firms’ selling price expectations are currently very elevated, we continue to expect inflation to rebound back toward 4% soon. 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Drop in yields unlikely to do much for housing As the recent decline in bond yields have been most pronounced at the long end of the curve, it is unlikely to trigger much of a renewed fall in five-year mortgages rates. We expect mortgage rates to... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Retail Sales (May) Retail sales fell again in May but the preliminary estimate suggests they rebounded strongly in June as non-essential stores re-opened. Consumers may transition away from spending on goods as the... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update New CPI weights will keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new CPI weights will prevent inflation from rising by as much as in the US but, with firms’ selling price expectations continuing to increase, the risks to inflation still seem to... 22nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Teranet House Prices (Jun.) House price inflation accelerated to 16% y/y in June but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio falling in recent months, price inflation will peak in the second half of the year. 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s new GDP forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada expects GDP to move above its pre-pandemic trend in 2023 but, given the potential for oil prices and residential investment to decline, we think its forecasts will prove too... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Consumption to drive recovery The lifting of restrictions and ongoing policy support should translate into a sustained period of above-potential GDP growth, driven by consumption and business investment. We expect GDP growth of 6... 15th July 2021 · 19 mins read
Canada Economics Bank tapers its asset purchases again The Bank of Canada’s decision to continue tapering its asset purchases today came as little surprise and we continue to expect the Bank to bring the QE program to a close by the end of this year. With... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales fell again in May as the global supply shortages continued to take their toll. While those shortages should ease in the second half of the year, the rebound in production is set to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Home sales fall further in June The local real estate board data suggest that home sales fell further in June but, with new listings declining as well, house prices look set to keep rising. 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected rise in employment in June confirms that labour shortages are not holding back the recovery, but the weakness in hours worked still suggests there are downside risks to our... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor High valuations may hold back risky assets While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years. 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to taper asset purchases As it is widely anticipated that the Bank of Canada will taper its asset purchases next week, the more significant development may be the introduction of a new range of indicators that the Bank will... 7th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Residential investment now the key downside risk The sheer scale of the surge in residential investment since the pandemic means it now presents a key downside risk to the outlook. At best, the widely held assumption that residential investment will... 6th July 2021 · 14 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2) The Bank of Canada’s latest surveys show more evidence of inflationary pressures building but, given firms and consumers expect higher inflation to be temporary, the Bank is unlikely to be too... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
