Canada Economics Weekly Housing proposals unlikely to amount to much Housing has emerged as one of the key issues in the federal election campaign but, even if some of the latest proposals are implemented, we doubt that they would have much impact on house prices. 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the Bank right to dismiss CPI-trim and CPI-median? We are not convinced by the Bank of Canada’s recent claim that CPI-trim and CPI-median are currently overstating underlying inflation, although their elevated level compared to CPI-common is mainly... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Fourth wave could delay recovery GDP is on track to return to its pre-pandemic level this month but, with the number of coronavirus infections now picking up, there is a growing risk that the recoveries in some sectors go into... 24th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau risks a fourth-wave election Even if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to trigger an election during the emerging fourth wave of the pandemic does not backfire, we doubt a majority win for the Liberals on September 20 th... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The re-opening of non-essential stores drove a 4.2% m/m rise in retail sales in June. While the preliminary estimate for July suggests retail sales dropped back again, that was most likely because... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Jul.) The Teranet measure of house price inflation accelerated to a 32-year high in July and is on track to pick up further in August. That should mark the peak but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio... 19th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation jumped to 3.7% in July as the coronavirus restrictions were eased and global supply chain issues pushed up goods prices. As the Bank of Canada’s preferred measure of core inflation was... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Manufacturing sales started to rebound in June but, with the global semiconductor shortage set to ease only gradually, it is likely to be a slow recovery for manufacturing sales volumes. 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Bank hints at benefits of new policy framework A new paper from the Bank of Canada outlines some additional economic benefits of a new monetary policy framework, which could be a sign that there is a greater chance of the Bank adopting average... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update What’s going on with wages? Distortions to the data mean it is hard to gauge the current pace of wage growth, but the business surveys suggest it will soon head back to pre-pandemic levels. Given the Bank’s upbeat view on the... 11th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Exports heating up as housing cools There was more evidence that the housing market is cooling this week, with home sales slipping to 12-month lows in seasonally adjusted terms in both Toronto and Vancouver. The good news, however, is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Labour Force Survey (July) The 94,000 increase in LFS employment in July was something of a disappointment given the lifting of coronavirus restrictions at the start of the month in many provinces, but the solid 1.3% m/m gain... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (June) The merchandise trade position returned to surplus in June thanks to a massive 8.7% m/m surge in exports, which suggests that second-quarter GDP growth was even stronger than the 2.5% annualised we... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update How do our key calls compare with the consensus? Our expectations for GDP growth and inflation this year are close to the consensus but, beyond then, we think both will be weaker than most expect. This is likely to feed through to a fall in the... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Bank will take comfort in latest inflation data Although inflation remained above the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range in June, the details of the release seem to support the Bank’s view that the high rate of inflation is due to transitory... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The monthly data suggest that GDP expanded by 2.5% annualised in the second quarter, despite the lockdowns in April and May, and the likely 0.7% m/m gain in June will provide a strong hand-over to the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
