Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2024) The second consecutive small fall in employment might seem to suggest that the labour market has taken a further turn for the worse, but it mainly reflected soft part-time employment among younger and... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) With the economy now in a position of excess supply, we expect core inflation to continue to fall back to 2% by the middle of next year. With the Bank of Canada putting more emphasis on the downside... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jun. 2024) The strength of oil exports in June suggests that GDP in the second quarter will come in stronger than the 2.1% annualised gain that the flash estimate implied. Coupled with stronger consumer goods... 6th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth to disappoint the Bank The data this week suggested that second-quarter GDP growth was a touch stronger than expected at 2.1% annualised. We expect higher oil export capacity and strong immigration to prevent a sharp... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (May.) The larger-than-expected rise in GDP in May suggests that the economy performed a little better than we anticipated last quarter, although the preliminary estimate of only a small rise in June is... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada races ahead of the pack The Bank of Canada’s second 25bp interest rate cut, taking the policy rate to 4.50%, was accompanied by a dovish shift in the communications. Our base case is that the Bank will continue to cut rates... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loosening cycle continues, September cut looks likely Alongside its decision to cut interest rates today, the Bank of Canada struck a more dovish tone than in June, supporting our forecast that another cut is coming at the next meeting in September. 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Stronger productivity growth ahead There are several structural factors that explain the underperformance of Canadian productivity growth compared to the US since the 1980s, but the underperformance in the last few years specifically... 23rd July 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CPI data just about clear path for another rate cut Despite some measures of monthly core price growth remaining above the rates consistent with 2% inflation, the June CPI release on the whole supported the case for another interest rate cut from the... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (May 2024) After a brief rebound in April, the renewed fall in retail sales volumes in May suggests that consumption growth is weakening again. We estimate that sales volumes fell by around 1% annualised in the... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank set for another rate cut Despite stronger core price pressures in May and June, the totality of the data is still supportive of another interest rate cut next week. With GDP growth below potential and shelter inflation now... 17th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jul. 2024) Further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada should breathe some life into the housing market in the coming months, but the dimmer outlook for rent growth and apartment prices present downside... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core prices rose at an above-target monthly pace for the second month running in June. Nonetheless, with the Bank’s Business Outlook... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank surveys show need for looser policy The Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys point to weak GDP growth, show that firms’ wage expectations are now lower than their pre-pandemic peak, and suggest that consumers are increasingly... 15th July 2024 · 3 mins read
