Canada Economics Update Bank puts up high bar for 50bp cut Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further cuts are likely. We expect 25 bp cuts at the final two meetings this... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2024) Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely. The tone of the communications was less... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jul. 2024) The improvement in the goods trade balance in July was for the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. The weakness was due to sharp declines in motor vehicle trade... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum Second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecast, but the evidence that growth slowed sharply over the quarter suggests that third-quarter growth will be much weaker... 30th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Canada EV tariffs; Is Trump warming to EVs? While Canada's tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles are unlikely to have a major impact on China's green exports, it is another example of broader global fracturing between China and the West... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2024) Although second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside, the downgrade to GDP in June and preliminary estimate that GDP was unchanged again in July imply that third-quarter growth will be much... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Another meeting, another 25bp cut The dovish communication following the last meeting and the encouraging July CPI report leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. A 25bp cut, to 4.25%... 28th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly July CPI cements the case for another 25 bp cut The muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July make another interest rate cut at the September meeting seem inevitable. The Bank will be encouraged by the second soft... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jun. 2024) Despite the 0.1% m/m gain in June, retail sales volumes contracted last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth also slowed. Prospects for the third quarter look better, with the... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The softer monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July suggest that the previous two months reflected normal volatility rather than a stalling of the downward trend in... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Warning signs for business investment The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2024) Interest rate cuts have so far failed to stimulate the housing market, although the sharper drop in borrowing costs this month will lend more support. Regional divergences are growing, with Toronto... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2024) It was an extremely poor month for the manufacturing sector in June, with sales falling to a two-and-a-half-year low. As new orders slumped, inventories are elevated and the S&P Global manufacturing... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s balancing act weighs risks on both sides With the Summary of Deliberations this week confirming that the Bank of Canada is putting more weight on the downside risks, we feel confident that the Bank will continue to cut interest rates at each... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2024) The second consecutive small fall in employment might seem to suggest that the labour market has taken a further turn for the worse, but it mainly reflected soft part-time employment among younger and... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) With the economy now in a position of excess supply, we expect core inflation to continue to fall back to 2% by the middle of next year. With the Bank of Canada putting more emphasis on the downside... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
