Canada Data Response GDP (Q4) The stagnation in fourth-quarter GDP, together with the downward revision to third-quarter GDP growth, leaves the economy in worse shape than the Bank of Canada expected. That is another reason to... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Fall in inflation partly due to one-off effects The larger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in January was partly due to one-off effects, but still reduces the chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to resume raising interest rates... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Mixed signals from underlying inflation The January CPI data provided mixed signals about developments in underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy and the CPI excluding the eight most volatile components each rose by just 0.1... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The much smaller rise in core prices in January suggests that headline inflation will fall faster than the Bank of Canada expects, reinforcing our view that the Bank is unlikely to resume raising... 21st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still in wait-and-see mode Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated this week that the Bank of Canada wants time to assess the impact of high interest rates, suggesting it will not respond to the strength of employment by immediately... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb.) The unseasonably warm start to 2023 provided little support to the housing market or construction, with sales and prices falling further in January while housing starts slumped to a 28-month low. As... 15th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) Another rise in motor vehicle manufacturing sales failed to offset weakness elsewhere in December, with overall sales volumes edging down. The rebound in the S&P Manufacturing PMI and manufacturing... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the strength of employment The surge in employment in January highlights that some sectors are still recovering strongly and raises the prospect that the economy could avoid recession, although we still judge that a modest one... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Fracturing to reshape the global economic system The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt... 13th February 2023 · 1 hr, 10 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong employment won’t force the Bank to do more The surge in employment and rise in hours worked in January suggest that economic activity continued to expand at the start of 2023 and present clear upside risks to our forecasts for GDP growth... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Services inflation already slowing Overall services price growth has already slowed but, for the Bank of Canada to loosen policy, we will need to see far more convincing signs of lower inflation in the most labour-intensive service... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We think bond yields will fall in Canada & ANZ We think sovereign bond yields in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will drop further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch What to make of the latest forward guidance Now that inflation has passed its peak and many central banks have begun to slow the pace of policy tightening, markets are back to scouring their communications for evidence of what’s to come. So far... 8th February 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Dec.) A surge in motor vehicle exports drove export volumes higher at the end of 2022, even as lower commodity prices weighed on export values. While there is scope for motor vehicle exports to recover... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed signals There were more mixed signals this week on how the economy is coping with higher interest rates. The GDP data suggest fourth-quarter growth was stronger than initially expected and the manufacturing... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
