Global Economics Update When will interest rates start to fall? Inflation is now on a downward trend and interest rates are at, or very close to, a peak. But central banks will only cut interest rates once there are clearer signs that underlying price pressures... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The renewed acceleration in the monthly changes in CPI-trim and CPI-median in April leaves us doubting our view that the Bank of Canada will be ready to cut interest rates as soon as October. 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (May) House prices rose by even more than we anticipated in April and the sales-to-new listing ratio points to further gains ahead. Housing starts also jumped last month, but the rising inventory of newly... 15th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Lending standards tightening, but only modestly The Bank of Canada’s first-quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) showed a sharp tightening of mortgage lending standards, but we already know that has not been enough to prevent a resurgence in... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising house prices could delay policy loosening Following the renewed concerns about regional US banks this week, markets are again pricing in interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada later this year. From a domestic perspective, however, the... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The decline in full-time positions in April means that the large rise in total employment was weaker than it looks. Hours worked only crept up during the LFS reference week and, given the public... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The small rise in export volumes and slump in import volumes in March confirms that net trade improved last quarter. However, the weakness of imports means there is a risk that the preliminary... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Labour market conditions easing Although the unemployment rate remains near a record low, the decline in vacancies suggests that labour market conditions have nevertheless eased, supporting our view that wage growth is close to a... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining vacancies should soothe Bank’s nerves The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations suggests it was closer to resuming interest rate hikes in April than we thought. Nonetheless, as the data releases this week showed a fall in the job... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The small rise in GDP in February points to healthy first-quarter growth but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a contraction in March and activity set to suffer in April due to the federal... 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Housing turnaround makes the Bank’s job harder House prices edged up in March and the sharp rise in the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests there are further gains to come. As the improvement has been driven mainly by a collapse in new listings... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation pressures gradually easing There was positive news for the Bank of Canada this week, as core inflation eased further in March. While our new house price forecasts imply there will be less disinflationary pressure from shelter... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
