Capital Daily Rate hike “skips”: good news for bonds or not? The experience of Australia and Canada in temporary pauses to rate hikes suggests that they may not sustainably lower long-term bond yields unless inflation is clearly under control. 7th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank resumes hikes and probably another to come The Bank of Canada’s 25bp interest rate hike today is unlikely to be the last, with the rapid turnaround in the housing market and concerning underlying inflation dynamics raising the case for at... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Apr.) Easing supply shortages supported strong export growth in April but, with the surveys of export orders still very weak, that strength is likely to fade soon. 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Why wait? The upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth means there is a rising probability that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again. While the commonly held view seems to be that the Bank will... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch 25bp hike coming with chance of another in July As GDP growth and CPI inflation have both surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts, we now judge that it will raise interest rates next week rather than wait until July. 31st May 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) The larger-than-expected 3.1% annualised rise in first-quarter GDP and the strong preliminary estimate in April boost the case for another interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, which could come... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market conditions easing The decline in the job vacancy rate to a 22-month low in March eases some of the pressure on the Bank of Canada but, with the CFIB Business Barometer showing a renewed rise in firms’ selling price... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Too soon to sound the all-clear for construction The turnaround in the housing market, with sales and prices rebounding in April, has raised hopes that construction will hold up despite elevated borrowing costs. Media reports suggest that buyer... 24th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada set to raise interest rates again The Bank of Canada’s latest Financial System Review reiterated the risks to households from higher interest rates, but concluded that most are coping well. Following the rapid turnaround in the... 19th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The fall in retail sales in March was driven mainly by lower vehicle sales. Overall sales volumes still rose by 4.9% annualised last quarter, suggesting that a pick-up in consumption supported GDP... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Growing case for another Bank of Canada rate hike The rapid turnaround in the housing market and the upside surprise to CPI inflation in April have raised the case for another interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, which we now judge is slightly... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
