Canada Economics Update Will the Bank be ready to cut by 50bp this month? With the inflation battle seemingly won, the Bank of Canada has indicated that it is prepared to cut interest rates more quickly if warranted, with that decision hinging on developments in business... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2024) Despite the trade deficit widening in August, developments earlier in the quarter means that net trade looks set to support GDP growth in the third quarter. With most of that positive contribution... 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing still struggling Activity in the housing market and broader economy have been struggling for momentum and give little indication that excess supply is dissipating, suggesting that there is still a strong case for a... 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The economy is stuck in a period of below-potential GDP growth, with previous interest rate hikes weighing on consumer spending and investment. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to favour a 50bp cut The upside surprise to GDP growth in July does not change the big picture that quarterly growth is likely to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada anticipated, while a host of other data releases... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul.) Although the rise in GDP in July was stronger than expected, the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in August suggests that the momentum was short lived and puts third-quarter growth on track to... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook A soft patch The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn... 26th September 2024 · 44 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt more aggressive loosening With the inflation battle all but won, weak GDP growth will force the Bank of Canada into more aggressive action, with a couple of 50bp interest rate cuts to end this year. We expect the Bank to adopt... 25th September 2024 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 50 is the new 25 The Summary of Deliberations from this month’s policy meeting showed policymakers at the Bank of Canada are increasingly concerned around the downside risks to inflation and activity. With growth set... 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) The rebound in retail sales volumes in July will be welcome news to the Bank of Canada, which has been concerned about the downside risks to the economy. With the outlook for sales positive, there is... 20th September 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2024) Increased supply and weaker demand are pushing down rents in several cities. That raises the risk of another leg down for apartment prices, despite the recent drop in mortgage rates. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) The return of headline inflation to the 2.0% target in August was mainly due to favourable base effects and is likely to be short-lived, with inflation rebounding to as high as 2.5% by the turn of the... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2024) The 0.9% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes in July implies there are upside risks to the flash estimate that total GDP was unchanged at the start of the third quarter, although the negative tone... 16th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update What happened to the boost from Trans Mountain? There was little impact on GDP from the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion because the jump in exports was supported by a drawdown of inventories from elevated levels, rather than... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank may not blink despite higher unemployment The communications from the Bank of Canada this week suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate in August is unlikely to be enough to trigger larger interest rate cuts, which is probably a sign... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
