Canada Rapid Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan. 2024) Lower prices mean that the muted 0.2% m/m rise in manufacturing sales in January was better than it looked, with sales volumes rising by a much stronger 1.1%. That strength was entirely due to the... 14th March 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem leaves the door open for a June cut Governor Tiff Macklem dropped a hint this week that the Bank of Canada may be ready to cut rates by June. There was little in the data to dissuade the Bank, with unemployment rising and bankruptcies... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb. 2024) The Bank of Canada will be relieved to see renewed labour market slack putting downward pressure on wage growth. While the Bank will need to see wage growth soften further before it pivots to rate... 8th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank gives little away The Bank of Canada gave little away about the potential timing of interest rate cuts today, although its communications suggest that it is gaining a bit more confidence that inflation is moving in the... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Unemployment rate to rise again before long A fall in the participation rate has kept a lid on unemployment in recent months but, given rapid population growth, we continue to expect the unemployment rate to rise to 6.5% later this year. 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft landing, at least in aggregate The return to growth in the fourth quarter means it is probably safe to say that the economy has avoided recession, but that is mainly due to rapid immigration. Per capita GDP fell for the fifth... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Although the economy returned to growth last quarter, spare capacity continues to accrue, and we expect CPI inflation to return to the 2% target by the third quarter. That leaves scope for the Bank of... 29th February 2024 · 0 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Five highlights from February This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in February, including the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank, and the launch of our coverage of the EU carbon... 29th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank continues to wait and see The Bank will be relieved to see the broad-based easing in core inflation in January, but is still likely to use its policy statement and press conference next week to emphasise the need for patience... 28th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly April back in play for first interest rate cut The encouraging January CPI data mean that the Bank of Canada’s April policy meeting is back in play for a potential interest rate cut, although it still seems more likely that the Bank will wait... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read