Bank of Canada Watch A final 25 bp hike The easing of core inflation pressures in May and the decline in inflation expectations means the case for another interest rate hike is not as strong as it seemed a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, with... 5th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Lumber price to ease back on demand weakness After fluctuating between $500 and $600 per 1,000 board feet for most of this year, we expect the US lumber price to fall from around $520 today to $475 by the end of the year due to weaker demand... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Case for July hike less compelling There was plenty for the Bank of Canada to digest this week, with the data showing that core inflation fell in May even as GDP growth picked up strongly again. The resilience of economic activity... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s survey results unlikely to prevent another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys showed a broad decline in inflation expectations and are consistent with a renewed slowdown in GDP growth. The Bank could use those... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Apr.) The stagnation in GDP in April was weaker than expected but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a sharp rise in GDP in May, quarterly growth should still be a touch higher than the Bank of... 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Recession or not, growth to disappoint Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 27th June 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Resilience giving way to recession Most advanced economies have so far dodged the recessions that we, and many others, had expected to start in the first half of this year. The relative resilience of activity can be pinned on several... 27th June 2023 · 46 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May) While the steep declines in both headline and core inflation in May were partly due to favourable base effects, the monthly gains in each also slowed compared to April. That probably won’t be enough... 27th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly July rate hike still looking likely The latest Summary of Deliberations gave no hint about whether the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again at the July meeting but, with little progress yet on any of the key factors that the... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in April suggests that household spending was resilient going into the second quarter. Both the preliminary estimate for May and the recent rebound in... 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jun.) The recovery in house prices continued in May, with the sales-to-new listing ratio pointing to further gains ahead. Rising interest rates will have a more limited impact on home purchases than... 19th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Full impact of higher rates still to come Heavily indebted households are still being sheltered from the full impact of the surge in interest rates over the past 18 months, but their finances look ever-more perilous. 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The resilience of manufacturing sales suggests easing supply shortages are still supporting activity, with the transport sector reaping much of the benefits. Nevertheless, the surveys point to a... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Conflicting signals for the Bank The fall in employment in May suggests the Bank might not need to follow its 25bp hike this week with another in July. But with employment among prime-age people continuing to rise strongly and house... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The fall in employment and the increase in the unemployment rate to 5.2% in May will probably not prevent the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates again at its July meeting, but the moves... 9th June 2023 · 3 mins read
