Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (May) Despite the rebound in GDP in May, growth in the second quarter looks set to be weaker than expected. With some of the factors supporting GDP set to unwind, third-quarter growth is also likely to come... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation back at 2.0%, at least by one measure Headline inflation fell to 2.8% in June and, excluding mortgage interest costs, was in line with the 2.0% target. While the Bank’s preferred core measures are still higher, the weakness of retail... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling inflation may add further fuel to bond rally More evidence that inflation is falling back in most economies has pushed government bond yields down across developed markets (DMs) over the past couple of weeks. We think that disappointing growth... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul.) The pick-up in existing home sales this year has spread to the pre-construction market, with new home sales in Toronto rebounding strongly. Together with the surge in housing starts in June, that... 18th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish hike still likely to be the last in this cycle The Bank of Canada struck a hawkish tone at its meeting this week, emphasising persistent excess demand and sticky price inflation. Nonetheless, with the upgrades to the Bank’s GDP and inflation... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update 5.0% likely to be the peak The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update “Excess” savings unlikely to avert spending slowdown The recent US experience seems to suggest that the household saving rate could fall further as Canadians draw down the savings they built up during the pandemic, supporting consumption. A closer look... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Supply of both labour and housing improves The data this week showed big improvements in supply in both the labour and housing markets, which should give the Bank of Canada confidence that CPI inflation will continue to decline. We still... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Canada & ANZ bonds no longer look like such outliers We still think the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds in Canada, Australia and New Zealand will fall by the end of this year, but no longer expect them to do so by much more than the yields of bonds... 7th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The surge in employment in June was not quite as strong as it looks, with hours worked essentially unchanged last month, but still suggests that another rate hike at the Bank of Canada’s meeting next... 7th July 2023 · 2 mins read
