Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December's trade data confirm that net exports made a very strong contribution to GDP growth in Q4. We estimate that GDP growth accelerated to 3.5% annualised in the final three months of last year... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) Solid increases in employment over the last three months are consistent with the pick-up in economic growth in Q4. However, the unfavourable split between part-time and full-time workers added in... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus House prices likely to fall for several years We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Food prices will push headline inflation higher We estimate that surging agricultural commodity prices will drive consumer food inflation to around 5% later this year, from just under 2%, which would add around 0.8 percentage points to headline CPI... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November GDP data confirm the likely pick-up in fourth quarter economic growth to more than 2.0% from 1.3% in the third. While a stronger US economy will help Canadian industry in the near-term, we... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) Higher energy prices and some base-year effects were behind the pick-up in headline inflation in December. Disinflationary pressures from excess capacity will continue to restrain core inflation... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) November's manufacturing shipments continue to reflect the slow recovery in manufacturing output and a gradual improvement in capacity utilisation. While sales volumes have gone sideways over the last... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still sitting on fence The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning is unequivocally dovish, no doubt a bit of a disappointment to market analysts, who had expected a more hawkish tone. Indeed, despite more... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Rising financial risks spell trouble The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold the key policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday. More importantly, we expect it to hold the policy rate at 1% throughout this year. This is in contrast to... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November trade data show that net exports jumped in Q4, due to stronger commodity-related exports and also surprisingly weaker imports. Barring a collapse in December exports, we estimate that net... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) Despite the modest acceleration in employment growth in December, Canada's economy didn't generate enough net new jobs to drive the unemployment rate any lower. The unemployment rate remained... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The latest indicators point toward fourth quarter GDP growth of around 2% annualised; a better performance than third quarter growth of 1%, but nothing spectacular considering the significant excess... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth to remain muted Our calculations indicate that real GDP did at least expand in October, albeit by a lacklustre 0.1% m/m. That should ease fears of a double-dip recession, after the unexpected contraction in September... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) November inflation figures support our view that sluggish economic growth is dampening inflationary pressures. Significant excess capacity and slack in labour markets are likely to keep the underlying... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) Manufacturing sales increased a tad stronger than we expected, though not enough to change our view on fourth-quarter GDP growth in the range of 1.5% to 2%. Indeed, looking through the monthly... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) While a restart in crude oil pipeline activity helped lift energy exports to the US, today's news was really about the surprise jump in non-oil exports to countries further abroad. Indeed, with the... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
