Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys unlikely to prompt another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys show that businesses’ inflation expectations continue to decline, albeit slowly, and point to a growing risk that the economy will fall into recession... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The fiscal implications of the rise in bond yields Perceptions matter at least as much as actual policies in determining fiscal stability. Accordingly, the surge in bond yields over the past month poses the greatest risk to those countries where the... 16th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly From bust to boom and back again for housing The fall in house prices in September shows just how quickly conditions in the housing market have shifted and the plunge in the sales-to-new listing ratio points to more weakness to come. That is... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update What’s behind resurgent core inflation pressures? The recent strength of core inflation compared to that in the US is mainly due to a rebound in durable goods prices. That has little to do with demand, which has weakened to a greater extent in Canada... 11th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher bond yields mean more pain for housing The further rise in home listings in September and likelihood that mortgage rates will increase amid the global bond market sell-off suggests that house prices will soon fall again. While employment... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The strong headline employment gain in September was entirely due to a rebound in educational services employment, with employment elsewhere edging down. That suggests labour market conditions... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bonds in Australia, NZ & Canada could outperform Treasuries We think the yields of 10-year government bonds in Australia, New Zealand and Canada will diverge from the yield of 10-year US Treasuries – which they have tracked very closely this year – over time... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Australian bonds could yet decouple from US Treasuries We think that the yields of Australian long-term sovereign bonds will fall by a bit less than those of US Treasuries over the next couple of years, even though they’ve moved in lockstep lately. But... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly On the cusp of recession despite surging population The recent acceleration in immigration may not be enough to keep the economy afloat, with the latest data and surveys pointing to an increased chance that GDP will contract over the rest of the year. 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Strong immigration and the resilience of the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada keeping further rate hikes on the table, we still judge... 27th September 2023 · 1 min read
