Canada Economics Weekly Sluggish GDP growth likely to stay Disappointing third-quarter trade figures, both for exports and imports, suggests that even our own bearish view on quarterly GDP growth of 1.4% annualised might be too high. Barring significant... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) August trade figures were disappointing. Export volumes were largely unchanged and there were downward revisions to export growth in previous months. Overall, we calculate that net exports likely... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market slack likely to increase Government officials insist that much of the slack in the labour market following the 2009 recession has been taken up. Alternative measures, however, contradict this message. Admittedly, the official... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update IMF still overly optimistic on Canada The IMF's revised economic growth outlook for Canada, which anticipates a slight pick-up in 2013 annual GDP growth, looks in our view to be overly optimistic. As we forewarned, the global economic... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's consensus blowing 52,100 gain in employment seems at odds with the recent lacklustre pace of GDP growth. The increase in the unemployment rate, to 7.4%, from 7.3% in August, is more... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in small business optimism no game changer 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Lower inflation around the corner We expect annual CPI inflation to fall from an already muted 1.6% this year to only 1.2% next year, as GDP growth slows and economic slack increases. The outlook for 2014 looks much the same. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What does Canada's new GDP methodology mean? Changes to Canada's quarterly national accounts methodology have resulted in a higher level of GDP. These important changes, however, have not significantly affected GDP growth and does not change our... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds stacking heavily against condo soft landing Slumping home sales is casting a dark shadow over prospects for new housing construction. Although the recent surge in multi-unit housing starts might sustain the elevated level of overall housing... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul. 12) July's stronger than expected 0.2% m/m increase in GDP, partly due to a rebound in petroleum and auto manufacturing, follows a weak downward revised 0.1% m/m advance in the month before. Given growing... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Pick-up in consumption growth likely to be temporary Although consumption growth has been fairly weak in the first half of this year, favourable income trends and a rebound in July's retail sales suggest that it may have picked up a little in the... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales volumes was somewhat stronger than we had assumed, but only helps to offset declines in wholesale trade and manufacturing sales, which we think restrained July's... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally looks overdone The recent surge in the Canadian dollar coincides neatly with the general rally in equity and commodity markets. The economic fundamentals that would typically justify this movement, however, are... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug. 12) The official 'core' inflation figure, which nudged down to 1.6% in August from 1.7% in July, is likely to decline further in the coming months as external and domestic risks dampen GDP growth. With... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing correction only just beginning Canada's already lacklustre rate of economic growth is only going to slow further as the housing correction intensifies. Home sales are now falling sharply and it is only a matter of time before... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
