Canada Chart Pack Housing starts likely to slump next year Since early 2010, housing starts have been driven by the multi-unit sector, with single detached housing starts remaining broadly unchanged. The problem is that housing construction has been running... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers in path of perfect storm The fragility of the global economic recovery, as we have long forewarned, has resurfaced and signs point to a material slowdown in global growth and commodity prices. Unfortunately, the global... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct. 12) October's unexpectedly weak 1,800 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) can be forgiven given the unusually strong gains in the previous two months. The worsening economic outlook... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The surprising 0.1% m/m decline in monthly GDP for August suggests the economy might have struggled to grow by even 1% annualised in the third quarter, below our previous estimate of 1.4%. Given the... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Further consensus growth downgrades likely lie ahead The downgraded consensus of private-sector GDP forecasts surveyed by the federal government for its upcoming fiscal update still looks overly optimistic. Further negative growth surprises to the... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada not immune to potential sub-prime problems The sub-prime mortgage crisis is often miscast as the cause of the US housing bust and that because Canada's sub-prime industry is supposedly much smaller in comparison, fears of a similar housing... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Strong payrolls survey encouraging for third-quarter GDP The recent strength in non-farm payroll data, which have showed solid gains in both employment and average weekly earnings, indicates that an improvement in third-quarter wages and salaries growth... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still overly optimistic on outlook The Bank's October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents an overly optimistic outlook for Canada's economy. While weak foreign demand restrains Canada's exports, flagging domestic business confidence... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada hawkish bias targets households The Bank of Canada is still saying that its policy rate will need to rise from the current 1%, but there appears to have been a shift in its reasoning for maintaining the tightening bias. Given the... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug. 12) Despite the 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales volumes in August, the rebounds in both wholesale trade and manufacturing sales suggest that GDP growth increased by a firm 0.2% m/m in August. Nonetheless... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment outlook less encouraging Despite the global economic slowdown, Canadian business investment is just about holding up, largely thanks to the strength of engineering and construction projects. All things considered, we think... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) Core inflation fell further below the Bank of Canada's 2% target in September, to 1.3%, its lowest rate in over a year. With slower anticipated GDP growth this quarter and next, underlying inflation... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Hawkish bias likely to be scratched early next year We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its tightening bias in next week's policy statement. With the euro-zone taking a temporary step back from the brink and US consumers spending more freely, the... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The solid 1.8% m/m rebound in August's manufacturing sales volumes, partially due to volatility in petroleum and coal products, and upward revisions to July's data are encouraging. Overall, this helps... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (2012Q3) Businesses are clearly more cautious about the outlook for sales and we think they are still too optimistic, especially now that the domestic economy looks vulnerable to a housing correction... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household Balance Sheets (2012 Q2) Revised data released today show that Canada's household debt problem is even worse than previously thought. Debt growth dynamics over the last decade look eerily similar to the US experience, just... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
