Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish The Bank of Canada is still clinging to the possibility that its policy rate might need to rise from the current 1% because it is too early to tell whether the housing slowdown will be sustained. It... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy sector in a jam A rebound in Canadian energy production, which was hit by temporary disruptions in the third quarter, should ensure that GDP growth rebounds to around 1.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. The... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2012) Canada's disappointing 0.6% annualised third-quarter GDP growth puts further pressure on the Bank of Canada to drop its tightening bias. We doubt, however, that this would be enough to prompt the Bank... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Third quarter wage growth looks robust Despite the modest drop back in September's non-farm payroll employment and average weekly earnings, third-quarter annualised growth in wages and salaries is likely to have accelerated to perhaps 8.0%... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Next move in rates more likely to be down than up We expect the Bank of Canada to stick with its tightening bias in next week’s policy statement and through the early stages of next year, before removing it completely by early March. By then we... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Carney's departure bad timing for Canada Mark Carney's surprise decision to accept the head job at the Bank of England, after explicitly telling everyone he was not interested, adds to an already uncertain outlook for Canada. Moreover, it... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly US housing recovery welcomed news for exporters The nascent US housing recovery is welcomed news for Canada's exporters, though a full fledged US economic recovery is likely to remain elusive for another year or two. Nonetheless, we anticipate some... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct. 12) Although core inflation, which remained at 1.3% in October, was slightly firmer than the consensus forecast of 1.2%, it remains well below the 2% policy target. Given the third-quarter economic... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep. 12) September's disappointing flat retail sales volumes, paired with a decline in wholesale trade and a modest increase in manufacturing sales, indicates that monthly GDP grew by just 0.1% m/m in... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing stagnation comes before the fall The recent decline in the sales-to-listings ratio points to home price stagnation ahead, a prospect that has already begun to scare away some condo investors. In Vancouver and Toronto, existing condo... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economic growth likely to remain sluggish Canada's economy is entering a slow growth zone. With external headwinds continuing to challenge exports and business confidence, stagnation in the domestic housing market is further casting doubt... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Government well positioned to weather storms The federal government's updated fiscal plan released last week, which reiterated the commitment to control program spending, is likely to come undone next year if, as we fear, economic growth slows... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's moderate 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing sales volumes, which was largely bolstered by a jump in aerospace, supports the view that Canada's economy grew by 0.2% m/m. Nevertheless, this... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are restrictions on home buyers too onerous? Although federal regulatory tightening of mortgage insurance rules and other lending principles have upset housing, we believe the new restrictions on home buying are prudent rather than too onerous... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep. 12) September's trade report confirms that exports were a major drag on overall third-quarter GDP growth, with net exports subtracting possibly as much as three percentage points. This evidence, combined... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Upbeat small businesses don't alter broad picture The latest increase in CFIB's small business optimism index to a six-month high of 65.6 in October, from 62.0 in September, doesn't alter the big picture that the economy may have slowed further at... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
