Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada continues to back off rate hikes With inflation now below target and the economy operating well below its potential, it was no surprise to see the Bank of Canada back even further away from raising interest rates. We still think that... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's exporters struggling to tap US recovery Canada's economy grew by only 0.7% annualised over the second half of last year, with a decline in exports subtracting almost 2 percentage points from annualised GDP. The recent lacklustre pace of non... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better business optimism to prop up GDP The recent improvement in small and medium-sized business optimism concurs with our forecast that economic growth rebounded at the start of 2013. However, the underlying details of the survey suggest... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2012) Canada's economic slowdown over the second half of last year and uncertain prospects ahead put additional pressure on the Bank of Canada to completely abandon its tightening bias next week. Given the... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Don't rule out future interest rate cuts The FDIC’s banking profile for the fourth quarter of last year shows that US banks are well placed to continue boosting lending to both firms and households. At the same time, there is not much... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's economy grinding to a standstill? We estimate that Canada's economy grew by roughly 0.5% annualised over the entire second half of last year and is likely to perform little better over the first half of this year. Trade competiveness... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) Following a year in which India’s growth weakened, external deficit widened, and sovereign ratings came under pressure, the upcoming budget will be a crucial test of the government’s policy... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Falling house prices setting a precedent for further declines National home prices have been in decline for five consecutive months and we anticipate further declines this year, as potential buyers are scared off by the prospect of capital losses. We standby our... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Brighter forestry prospects no harbinger for Canada The turnaround in the US housing market, which has pushed lumber prices up to multi-year highs, is benefiting Canada's forestry exporters. However, the pick-up in demand for lumber south of the border... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Considerable economic slack dampening inflation We think that the Bank of Canada has been underestimating the amount of slack in the economy, which explains why its recent quarterly inflation forecasts have erred on the high side. Looking ahead... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's disappointing 3.1% m/m drop in manufacturing sales more than offset the previous month's rebound and suggests that industrial production faltered at the end of last year. Overall, the risks... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update As housing goes, so goes the economy The latest batch of economic data, particularly the slump in construction activity, supports our view that Canada's economy will expand by only 1.0% in 2013, well below the expectations of most other... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What's the trigger for a house price correction? Those still looking for what might trigger a major house price correction in Canada need look no further than Vancouver's housing bubble, where house prices have already begun to deflate. The sudden... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December's decline in export volumes is a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. Moreover, the widespread drop in imports suggest that the domestic economy slowed quite a bit at the end of... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's weaker than expected 21,900 decline in employment (the consensus estimate was +5,000) can be forgiven, given the unusually strong gains posted in previous months. Nevertheless, with the... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Inflation falls to three-year low Canada's headline annual inflation rate has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, suggesting that there is more slack in the economy than commonly perceived. With economic growth forecast to... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
