Canada Economics Update Business intentions indicate sluggish growth ahead The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that, while slightly more businesses expect future sales to pick-up over the next 12 months, investment intentions have been scaled back and hiring... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing demand dashing hopes of spring rebound The Spring housing season is just getting underway but, unfortunately, hopes of a rebound in housing demand don't look promising. The affordability argument based on low mortgage rates isn't enticing... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) March's ugly 54,500 decline in employment offsets the previous month's equally surprising gain, leaving employment little changed over the first quarter of this year. Given recent sluggish GDP growth... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Private sector forecasters still overly optimistic The latest survey of private sector forecasters, included in the recent Federal Budget, shows that they remain overly optimistic about the prospects for economic growth in 2013 and beyond. Ignoring... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan. 13) January's 0.2% m/m rebound in monthly GDP, which reversed a similar-sized contraction in the final month of last year, still leaves the economy struggling to advance at a rate anywhere close to the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The stronger than expected pick-up in headline inflation to 1.2% in February, from 0.5% in January, mostly reflects higher gasoline and motor vehicle prices. It does not alter the near-term outlook... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturing still faces considerable headwinds While at some point the latest pick-up in the US economic recovery will translate into stronger Canadian manufacturing sales, we suspect that the weak pulse of the domestic economy will limit any... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The flat growth in January's retail sales volumes suggests that the slowdown in consumption growth seen at the end of last quarter appears to have continued into the first quarter. Accordingly, there... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) Despite the past weakening in existing home sales and rising number of properties for sale, the annual growth rate of house prices remained at 2.7% in February. As sales continue to trend lower... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) January's disappointing 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes suggest that industrial production might have struggled to rebound from December's decline. Thankfully, wholesale activity... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak hourly earnings limits wage growth The strong pick-up in Labour Force Survey hours worked suggest that first-quarter wages and salaries growth should improve from the modest 2.4% annualised gain posted in the fourth quarter of last... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing downturn gathering force The downward trend in both existing home sales and housing starts indicates that the housing slowdown is unfortunately becoming more broad-based. As demand and supply imbalances intensify this year... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Lower inflation may further delay return to fiscal balance Concerns about when governments will meet their budget deficit elimination goals have mostly centred on rosy consensus real GDP growth forecasts. But lower inflation could also result in even longer... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consensus clings to pick-up in exports and investment The underlying impetus for economic growth is fading. For 2013, we doubt that export and business investment growth will provide strong enough pillars to offset modest consumption growth, government... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey & Housing Starts (Feb.) February's 50,700 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was +8,000) is a big surprise given how weak GDP growth has been recently. Even after taking into account the 21,900 jobs lost in January... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade & Building Permits (Jan.) January's external trade data bodes well for first-quarter real GDP growth, which we anticipate will increase by 1.5% annualised. Other data released this morning also shows that January's residential... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
