Canada Economics Update Bank stands pat and waits for new Governor The Bank of Canada stood pat, leaving its tightening bias unchanged ahead of the arrival of the new Governor. The challenges that Governor Poloz will face, namely a weak global economy, volatile... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Declining profits likely to hinder business investment Against the fragile global backdrop and the volatility of Canadian energy prices, business operating profits, which nudged lower in the first quarter of this year, are likely to remain under... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deflation alert Underlying inflation has fallen below the Bank of Canada's inflation 1% to 3% target range and could decline even further if the real economy underperforms this year. Accordingly, without additional... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Tightening bias will soon become unnecessary The outgoing Governor Carney's last scheduled statement next week (May 29th) is unlikely to hint at any shift in policy. Nor do we believe that his replacement Stephen Poloz, due to take over next... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Despite the healthy 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in March, earlier reports showing far more tepid increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade suggest that the economy ended the first... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending less supportive to growth After shoring up economic growth over the second half of last year, economic indicators suggest that household consumption will be less supportive to growth over the first half of this year and... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) The official core inflation figure, which declined to a slightly lower than expected 1.1% in April from 1.4% in the previous month, might slip below its target range as economic growth disappoints... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) Although manufacturing sales volumes rose by a small 0.2% m/m in March and February's gain was revised down to 1.8% m/m from 2.5% m/m, first-quarter GDP growth is still likely to accelerate to between... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Apr.) Although house prices rose on a month-on-month basis in April, the annual growth rate slipped to a three-and-a-half-year low of 2.0%, from 2.6% in March. As home sales continue to fall, we expect... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's advance likely to fizzle out The Canadian dollar's recent advance is likely to fizzle out as it becomes clearer to the market that Canada's economy is actually losing momentum. We expect lower commodity prices and a severe... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's moderate 12,500 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was +15,000) suggests that the economy has begun this quarter on a somewhat softer footing. If we are correct about the economy's... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts likely to decline further The continued decline in housing starts from elevated levels supports our view that residential investment will remain a drag on economic growth over the first half of 2013. Unfortunately, housing... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing's rebalancing act unlikely to be painless The downward trend in housing starts supports our long-held view that a housing correction is underway. More importantly, the slump in pre-construction condo sales and dwindling number of new project... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New Bank Governor, same problems The announcement that Stephen Poloz will be the next Bank of Canada Governor came as something of a surprise, since the current number two at the Bank, Tiff Macklem, was widely tipped to take over... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar. 13) Canada posted it's first monthly trade surplus in a year in March. Unfortunately, we expect the improvement to be fleeting. The March figures were flattered by a big weather-related jump in natural... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The bigger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in Canada's monthly GDP for February, alongside the upward revision to January's gain, suggests that first-quarter GDP growth was at least 2% annualised. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
