Canada Economics Weekly Some exporters could benefit from European recovery Canada's trade with the euro-zone is small, so any sustained European recovery would provide only modest support to Canadian export growth. That said, there are a few industries that might benefit... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Despite a strong rebound in petroleum refining, June's surprising 1.3% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes, which wasn't related to the floods in Alberta, suggests that second-quarter GDP... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home sales likely to drop back before year end The recent uptick in existing homes sales most likely reflects a rush by home buyers to complete deals before mortgage rates rise further. However, this has only pulled forward sales that would have... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The continued deceleration in house price inflation across most major cities in July is broadly consistent with the past slowdown in home sales. As demand and supply imbalances continue to intensify... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low wage cost pressures point to muted inflation The latest slowdown in hourly earnings provides further evidence that underlying inflation is likely to remain close to the lower bound of the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3%. This supports... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Homebuilders are having a Wile E. Coyote moment While housing starts have displayed some surprising resilience over the past several months, which would seem to support the consensus view that the housing market is enjoying a soft landing, more... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) July's surprising 39,400 decline in employment looks bad but, since it mainly reflects less hiring of younger workers this summer, the Bank of Canada should view it as a temporary shock that will be... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's sluggish export 'led' recovery Canada's export growth slowed to around 2.0% annualised in the second quarter, from just over 6.0% in the first quarter, which would seem to refute hopes of an export-led pick-up in economic growth... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) June's 1.5% m/m rebound in export volumes and further contraction in imports are further evidence that the economy lost momentum in the second quarter. This supports our view that the economy grew by... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers' struggles likely to persist Canadian manufacturing production is being hampered by sluggish foreign demand and, to a lesser extent, moderating domestic demand. While gradually improving US demand is providing much needed support... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) Canada's economy regained some lost momentum mid-way through the last quarter, with real GDP expanding by 0.2% m/m in May. (See Chart.) Taking into consideration the likely weakness in June's GDP due... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global potash price slump won't harm Canada's economy The anticipated slump in potash prices should have only a minor impact on Canada's economy. Potash mining represents a tiny share of Canada's GDP and exports. Moreover, the relatively lower cost of... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada poised for slow growth Canada's economy is poised for a long period of slow growth, as the mining investment boom simmers down and other parts of the economy such as housing or exports are either over-extended or growing... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stronger consumption growth unlikely to last The evidence suggests that, after a paltry 0.9% annualised in the first quarter, second-quarter real consumption growth accelerated to 3.0% annualised. Unfortunately, we suspect that consumption... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business confidence hints at steady Q3 GDP growth The uptick in the CFIB's small and medium-sized business confidence in July suggests that third-quarter GDP might rise by as much as 2.0% annualised. The details behind this optimism, however, appear... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) The robust 1.9% m/m gain in May's retail sales volumes, together with earlier reports showing strong increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade, suggest that the economy grew by as much as 0.4% in... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
