Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The latest pick-up in house price inflation is consistent with the reported rebound in existing home sales. But as mortgage rates continue to rise, we expect falling home sales will eventually result... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Credit Monitor (Jul.) Restrictive mortgage rules and rising fixed mortgage rates suggest that the slowdown in household credit growth is likely to persist. Meanwhile, trends in business sector credit growth suggest that... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing's support to second-half GDP unlikely to last Housing investment might continue to support GDP growth over the second half of this year, but there are still tentative signs that a day of reckoning lies around the corner, with housing likely to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower before year-end We expect the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar to be followed by another downward leg before year-end. While improving global economic conditions and buoyant commodity prices will help to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The surprisingly robust 59,200 rebound in employment in August, following declines over the prior two months, wasn't quite as good as it looks because that gain owed a lot to a surge in part-time jobs... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's second-half showing likely to disappoint Following disruptions to energy output in the second half of last year, Canada's economy rebounded over the first half of this year, posting GDP growth of 2.2% and 1.7% annualised in the first and... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish Although the Bank of Canada retained its tightening bias word for word, it now admits that the continuing weakness in exports and investment mean hopes of a smooth 'rotation in demand' look less... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) July's discouraging decline in export volumes adds to our concern that Canada is not fully benefitting from the gradually improving US economy. With export competitiveness challenges likely to persist... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian firms hampered by lack of competitiveness Those hoping that the expected pick-up in US domestic demand growth will drive an export-led recovery in Canada are likely to be disappointed. Over the past decade, Canadian firms have suffered a... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2013) The moderate slowdown in GDP growth to 1.7% annualised in the second quarter, from 2.2% in the first, is encouraging given the impact of the flooding in Alberta and the construction strike in Quebec. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Higher commodity prices boosts business confidence Another rise in the CFIB's small business confidence in August suggests that firms continue to expect GDP growth to pick up in the third quarter, from our estimated 1.5% annualised in the second.... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still pinning hopes on an unlikely export-led recovery The Bank of Canada is unlikely to make any major changes in its upcoming policy announcement next Wednesday (4th September), but the recent surge in Canadian long-term interest rates could prompt the... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's second-quarter GDP slowdown Canada's economy contracted sharply at the end of the second quarter, but only partly because of one-off factors related to severe floods and a brief labour strike. For the second quarter as a whole... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) July's subdued inflation figures are consistent with an economy growing below potential, which will only reinforce the Bank of Canada's reluctance to raise rates anytime soon. With growth expected to... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Favourable oil prices could spur business investment The rebound in domestic crude oil prices over the first half of this year has improved the outlook for Canadian business investment. Overall, this suggests some upside risk to GDP outlook of 1.5% in... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's 1.2% m/m decline in retail sales volumes, which only partially reversed the 1.9% m/m gain in the month before, confirms that, over the second quarter as a whole, household consumption growth... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
