Canada Chart Pack Third-quarter GDP growth won't be sustained After being hit by floods and a major labour union strike at the end of the second quarter, Canada's economy rebounded sharply at the start of the third. For the third quarter as a whole, we now... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing to hold back economy As the export recovery is further delayed and housing activity softens, we expect Canada's economy to continue to struggle over the next two years. After growing by 1.6% this year, we forecast annual... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) & Housing Starts (Sep.) The unexpected widening of the trade deficit in August suggests that net trade will remain largely neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate to be 2.0% annualised. With export volumes... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pent-up demand for new motor vehicles nearly exhausted The record new motor vehicle sales streak this year mainly reflects the ongoing unwinding of pent-up demand. With some pent-up demand still remaining, vehicle purchases are likely to improve somewhat... 4th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US government shutdown shouldn't hurt Canada The US government shutdown should not have a material negative impact on Canada's economy. But if this political deadlock is any indication of how US policymakers will handle the much more important... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Canada's robust 0.6% m/m rebound in July suggests that the economy had more momentum at the start of the third quarter than we had previously thought. Accordingly, it now looks like the economy grew... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending splurge might continue The household spending splurge that prevented what would have otherwise been a poor economic showing last quarter may have been repeated this quarter. Although higher prices of food and transportation... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business survey suggests steady Q3 GDP growth In spite of the modest drop back in September, the CFIB's small business confidence suggests that annualised GDP growth in the third quarter is likely to match second-quarter’s 1.7% gain. This... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Expectations for second-half GDP growth too optimistic At slightly more than 2.0%, the latest consensus forecast for third-quarter annualised GDP growth looks too strong to us. Partly because of large negative carry-over effects from the second quarter... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The recovery in July's retail sales volumes confirms that the economy rebounded from the dip in June. We suspect that GDP rebounded by 0.3% m/m in July, although we still think that GDP growth for the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy far from turning corner We think the Bank of Canada Governor's recent postulation about the economy turning the corner is misplaced. The recent weakness in merchandise exports, excess capacity utilisation and manufacturing... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) The increased slack in the economy kept underlying inflation under wraps in August. With economic growth likely to remain sluggish through the rest of this year and inflation expectations well... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely Governor Stephen Poloz's speech today indicated that that the Bank of Canada is doubling-down on its earlier bet that the economy is poised for a comeback, led by a rebound in exports and then... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely New Zealand’s economy slowed in Q2, as drought hit agricultural and manufacturing production. However, there were encouraging signs of improvement in other areas of the economy, which bodes well for... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul.) The robust rebound in manufacturing sales volumes suggest that GDP likely rebounded by 0.3% m/m in July. That suggests the economy began the third quarter on a solid footing, but the weak end to the... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's home ownership fling worse than US The third and final wave of data from Statistics Canada's National Household Survey (NHS) published last week reveal that the Canadian home ownership rate surpassed the record peak at the height of... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
