Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's descent not over The recent pullback in the Canadian dollar owes more to weaker domestic fundamentals rather than volatile commodity prices. With domestic economic conditions likely to remain sluggish through next... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus EU trade deal would provide only modest benefits The Canadian government's new free trade agreement with the EU, should it be ratified, will provide only modest economic benefits. Since this ratification will take a year or two, the trade deal does... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Aug.) The stronger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in August GDP suggests that the economy grew by close to 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, stronger than our previous estimate of 2.0%. But since much... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Capacity constraints won't threaten higher inflation for years In addition to downgrading its economic outlook last week and postponing when it expects the economy to return to full capacity until late 2015, the Bank of Canada also lowered its estimate of... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The monthly trade deficit was basically unchanged at $38.8bn in August, suggesting that net external trade had a neutral impact on overall third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was near 2.0%... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada throws in towel The Bank of Canada's decision to downgrade its economic outlook and drop its vague tightening bias supports our view that if there is any change in monetary policy over the near-term, it would be to... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The moderate increase in August retail sales volumes, after earlier reports showing unimpressive wholesale and manufacturing figures for that month, suggest that the economy might have struggled to... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The moderate increase in August retail sales volumes, after earlier reports showing unimpressive wholesale and manufacturing figures for that month, suggest that the economy might have struggled to... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is business investment turning a corner? We estimate that stronger business investment growth of close to 7.0% annualised helped to boost third-quarter GDP growth, possibly slightly above 2.0% annualised. It is important to stress, however... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) September's slightly weaker than expected core inflation reading is consistent with the increase in economic slack over the past year. With the Bank of Canada's export-led recovery hopes likely to... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Economic growth outlook likely to be downgraded We don't expect the Bank of Canada to make any major changes in next week's policy statement (Wednesday, 23rd October). While weak exports and business confidence are likely to have prompted some... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The small decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August suggests that, after rebounding strongly in July, the economy grew by only 0.1% m/m in August. Nevertheless, given the strong start to the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response House Prices & Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The uptick in house price inflation, to 2.7% in September from 2.3% in August, is consistent with the reported decline in the supply of housing inventory. But with home sales being pulled forward in... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New housing activity spread signalling slowdown ahead The historically high number of housing units under construction justifies the current strength of construction employment. But the negative spread between housing starts and completions signals that... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses losing confidence in economic outlook The latest Business Outlook Survey dealt another blow to the Bank of Canada's upbeat growth outlook. With businesses turning more cautious on the outlook for sales and capital investment, even our... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's modest 11,900 increase in employment, mostly among younger workers, still suggests that the economy is struggling to generate any material improvement in broader labour market conditions... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
