Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's decline in export volumes illustrates that any export-led recovery is still some way off. This supports our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will slow to a very underwhelming 1.5%... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Currency depreciation will prevent deflation The recent softening in underlying inflation, which has been partly driven by the widening output gap, has triggered speculation that Canada faces the risk of a deflation developing, particularly if... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2013) Although the pick-up in third-quarter GDP growth is encouraging, it partly reflects the rebound from flooding in Alberta and the construction strike in Quebec. Unfortunately, the details show a... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to pause before signalling policy easing Following the downgrading of its economic outlook and dropped tightening bias, the recent economic data have been just about strong enough to allow the Bank of Canada to stand pat at next week's... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality job creation to restrain income growth It is encouraging that, even allowing for the modest drop back in September, the payroll survey suggests employment growth picked up in the third quarter. Unfortunately, over the past year, payroll... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits and investment likely to slow The slowdown in third-quarter business profit growth and the more recent pullback in commodity prices suggest that investment growth will remain lacklustre. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada's hopes of... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly OECD's call for higher interest rates misplaced The OECD's suggestion that the Bank of Canada may need to raise interest rates soon is misplaced for two reasons. First, it underestimates the amount of monetary policy stimulus that will be needed to... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) October's muted core inflation reading illustrates the considerable economic slack that remains and supports the Bank of Canada's recent decision to discard its tightening bias. With an acceleration... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter mortgage rules could worsen future housing correction Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's latest threat to intervene in the housing market appears ill-timed. Although the recent pick-up in existing home sales points to some acceleration in house price... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes indicate that monthly GDP grew by a respectable 0.2% m/m. For the third quarter as a whole, this suggests some slight upside... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's trade figures confirm that, for the third quarter as a whole, exports were a material drag on GDP growth, which we estimate was 2.5% annualised. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The further acceleration in annual house price growth to 3.1% in October, from 2.7%, reflects the recent rebound in home sales. Since the latter largely reflects a rush to take advantage of low... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government turning more cautious on economy After enjoying a stronger than expected 2012-13 fiscal year, the Federal government is taking a cautious approach and sticking with its previous timetable to eliminate the budget deficit by 2015. With... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil prices should bounce back soon The capacity constraints affecting cross-border pipelines and outages at major US refineries have caused a backup in Canadian oil inventories, temporarily depressing Canadian oil prices. But as these... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's moderate 13,200 increase in employment, which was only slightly above the consensus estimate of 11,000, is further evidence that the economy is struggling to produce any material improvement... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Energy rebound boosts third-quarter GDP growth Canada's economic growth appears to have accelerated to close to 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years, thanks partly to a rebound in energy production. With other... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
