Canada Chart Pack Low inflation may soon prompt easing bias Inflation has remained at the bottom of the Bank of Canada's 1% to 3% target range for over a year now, highlighting why the Governor is in no hurry to raise interest rates anytime soon. (See Chart.)... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November's flat export and import trade figures suggest that the economy lost some momentum mid-way through the fourth quarter of last year. Given the fairly strong start to that quarter, however, we... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consensus overly optimistic on 2014 growth prospects The consensus view that economic growth will accelerate this year is misplaced. While exports and business investment should improve modestly, we anticipate this will be more than offset by weaker... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) October's stronger-than-consensus GDP growth of 0.3% m/m suggests that activity began the fourth quarter on a solid footing. For the quarter as a whole, we now think that the economy will expand by... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mega-project investments unlikely to kick-in soon enough The many large-scale energy-related investment projects that are in the works are certainly an encouraging sign for the longer-term economic outlook. With many of these projects still awaiting final... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) With core inflation unexpectedly falling even closer to the bottom of the 1% to 3% target range in November, the Bank of Canada will be more worried than before about the downside risks to inflation. 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policy flexibility limits downside economic risks We anticipate only a modest pick-up in the growth rates of exports and business investment, which will be more than offset by the impact of an outright decline in residential investment and slower... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) October's surprisingly strong gain in manufacturing sales volumes was largely due to the strength of the rebound in food sales. The weakness of sales in most other categories and the downward trend in... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada still facing multitude of risks The Bank of Canada's latest semi-annual Financial System Review was a stark reminder that a lot could go wrong for Canada over the next year or two. While highlighting the progress in Europe, it now... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The further acceleration in house price inflation to a 13-month high of 3.4% in November, from 3.1%, reflects the pick-up in existing home sales seen earlier this year. Most recently existing home... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing will become a drag on economy next year While the recent condo-driven pick-up in housing starts will provide a boost to fourth-quarter residential investment, the slump in new home sales suggests it will be reversed next year, making... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker Canadian dollar no panacea for economic blues The Bank of Canada's increasingly dovish stance explains only a small part of the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. We think it has more to do with the pullback in commodity prices... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker Canadian dollar no panacea for economic blues The Bank of Canada's increasingly dovish stance explains only a small part of the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. We think it has more to do with the pullback in commodity prices... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's stronger than expected 21,600 gain in employment was overshadowed by the decline in hours worked. Accordingly, the incoming data still points to slower fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Faster economic growth won't be sustained Canada's economic growth rate has rebounded slightly after the disconcerting slowdown in the second half of last year. Growth remains overly dependent on unsustainable household borrowing, however... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada shuffling closer to a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its neutral stance as expected, its policy statement showed that it does have more concerns about the growth and inflation outlook, just not enough right now to... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
