Canada Economics Update Housing downturn will drag on for much longer The recent slowdown in housing starts is just the beginning of a long-term correction that will dampen economic growth this year and next. If, as we expect, new home sales soften further, in response... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence improves amidst uncertain outlook The modest improvement evident in the Bank of Canada's spring Business Outlook Survey is an encouraging sign, but doubts remain about the near-term outlook for exports and softening domestic demand... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising wage growth no threat to the inflation outlook The recent acceleration in wage inflation is an encouraging sign, especially considering the excess slack in labour markets and still uncertain economic outlook. For these and other reasons, however... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Employment increased by a robust 42,900 in March, driving the unemployment rate down to a four-month low of 6.9%, from 7.0%. Unfortunately, the bulk of the net jobs created last month were apparently... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) February's merchandise trade report, which revealed only a partial rebound in export volumes, can be partly blamed on bad weather. Nevertheless it still seems that Canada's economy isn't benefitting... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The stronger than expected 0.5% m/m rebound in January's GDP, which fully reversed December's weather-related contraction, suggests that bad weather had a smaller effect on first-quarter activity than... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cuts won't trigger housing rally The decision by Canada's large banks to cut fixed mortgage rates ahead of the typically busy Spring home buying season won't boost sagging home sales. With housing so unaffordable, mortgage rates... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Demographics to weigh on economic growth and interest rates In his speech last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz argued that the legacy of the financial crisis and demographic changes can explain Canada's recent lacklustre economic performance. More... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The decline in annual headline inflation to 1.1% in February, from 1.5%, won't concern the Bank of Canada as it mainly reflects base-year effects in transportation and clothing. Meanwhile, the strong... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Quebec might do better with its own currency Pauline Marois, leader of the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ), has suggested that an independent Quebec could hold a seat on the governing council of the Bank of Canada and retain the Canadian dollar... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) The partial rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in January can be partly blamed on the bad weather, which continues to constrain activity. Nevertheless, the persistent weakness in unfilled orders... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Idle industrial capacity likely to grow further The fall in manufacturing capacity utilisation over the past year casts further doubt over the Bank of Canada's expectation that the external sector can take over from households in driving economic... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower Canadian dollar won't cure export blues January's discouraging external trade figures suggest that the economy began the year on a weak footing. Unfortunately, exporters are likely to struggle throughout the year. Although the Canadian... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) The further acceleration in house price inflation to 5.0% in February, from 4.5% in the previous month, mainly reflects tighter supply and demand conditions. The drop in existing home sales since then... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada takes more hawkish line The recent rise in inflation prompted the Bank of Canada to take a slightly more hawkish stance in its policy statement last week. At 1.5% in January, inflation is still well below the mid-point of... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The 7,000 decline in employment in February specifically is not a major concern since the unusually severe winter may have played a role. Nevertheless, the broader picture is that employment has been... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
