Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) While Canada's external merchandise trade surplus shrunk unexpectedly in March, from a bigger than previously estimated surplus in February, the more discouraging news was the declines in export and... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Regional disparity a dilemma for the Bank of Canada Canada's uneven regional economic performance presents a dilemma for the Bank of Canada. While natural resource-rich provinces flourished last year, those that are reliant on manufacturing struggled... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) February's consensus-matching 0.2% m/m increase in GDP, together with small upward revisions to earlier figures, suggest that first-quarter GDP growth will turn out to be close to 2.0% annualised... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality jobs and rising prices constrain spending February's payroll figures suggest that nominal wages and salaries growth slowed in the first quarter and discouraging job quality trends suggest that wages might not improve much in this quarter... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising retail gasoline prices no conundrum The recent jump in gasoline prices isn’t a conundrum. Several explanatory factors are at play, including seasonal effects. But for the most part, rising gasoline prices reflect higher refinery crude... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower Canadian dollar no panacea Canada’s economic underperformance will continue as competitiveness challenges restrain exports and the slowdown in housing intensifies. We expect GDP to increase by 2.0% in 2014, before slowing to... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The trivial rise in retail sales volumes in February suggests that spending was probably still being held back by the unusually severe winter weather. Nonetheless, after accounting for the better... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Q2 economic rebound will mask deteriorating fundamentals As the effects of the severe winter weather subside in the second quarter, the resulting bounce back in GDP growth could be misinterpreted as a sign of improving fundamentals rather than a short-lived... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) While headline inflation rebounded to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, the uptick was due to higher energy prices and base year effects. In contrast, core inflation climbed only slightly to 1.3% last month... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The Bank of Canada retained its neutral rate bias in its latest policy statement and emphasised that, despite the lower Canadian dollar, core inflation will still take about two years to return to... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian oil no longer selling at a discount The steady rise in Canadian oil prices over the past few months has, in the case of light sweet crude, left them back on par with international benchmarks. Canada's energy producers have benefitted... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Feb.) Despite the rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in February, the significant downward revisions to sales in the two preceding months confirm that bad weather dampened economic growth in the first... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Mar.) The decline in the Teranet measure of house price inflation to 4.6% in March, from 5.0%, reflects the earlier drop back in existing home sales. We expect sales to continue falling, eventually... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada stuck between a rock and a hard place Canada's economic performance over the second half of last year was slightly stronger than the Bank of Canada had assumed at the start of the year, but there have been few signs of the rotation in... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the sidelines for time being We anticipate that the Bank of Canada will retain its neutral bias on rates in next week's policy statement, although some dovish tweaks might surprise markets. Economic growth remains unbalanced... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
