Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Canada's shocking 9,400 decline in employment, following almost no gains over the previous six months, suggests that the economy is really struggling. Clearly, the economy just isn't benefitting from... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to be panicked by higher inflation readings We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although inflation has been firmer than the Bank had originally expected, this is partly because... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence falls amid uncertain outlook While the Bank of Canada's summer Business Outlook Survey results point to an improvement in the fundamental drivers of economic growth, businesses seem less sure about the economic outlook. In... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better second-quarter GDP growth unlikely to be sustained The lacklustre pace of economic growth in the spring suggests that the economy is still misfiring. As things stand now, we estimate that the economy grew by only 2.0% annualised in the second quarter... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The decline in the merchandise trade deficit in May looks encouraging, particularly since it was largely driven by a strong rebound in exports. Unfortunately, that rebound was heavily influenced by... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Apr.) There were both positive and negative signs in April's GDP figures, but the bottom line is that the economy is still struggling to grow in line with its potential rate, which suggests that recent... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fears of skilled worker shortages overdone While labour force retirements and shifting educational preferences among younger people may have contributed to a recent shortage of skilled trade workers in certain industries or regions, our... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in inflation won't change interest rate outlook The recent pick-up in inflation, which mainly reflects volatility in energy and food prices, won't change the Bank of Canada's neutral view on rates. With exports and investment still underperforming... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's equity market rally likely to simmer down The recent rally in Canada's benchmark stock market index, which has risen by 24% over the past 12 months, took it to a new record high last week. What's more impressive from our vantage point is the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) The stronger than expected pick-up in both headline and core inflation indicates that inflation will overshot the Bank of Canada's previous forecast assumptions. Since a large part of this is due to... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household financial leverage still dangerously high While Canadian policymakers will be somewhat relieved to learn that household financial leverage hasn't risen any higher this year, it hasn't fallen either, meaning that heavily indebted households... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market slack will keep inflation low Although inflation has been on the rise, the broader evidence suggests that this pick-up should prove temporary. Economic growth since the start of the year has been disappointing and labour market... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability a major problem While the Canadian government has been tightening its macro-prudential housing rules over the past five years, housing valuations have continued to inflate and household financial leverage has climbed... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr. 14) The disappointing decline in manufacturing sales in April was entirely due to lower prices, whereas sales volumes continued to recover from the weather-related drop late last year. With sales now... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) The latest Teranet house price data provide some early evidence that the slowdown in house price inflation continued in May. The past decline in existing home sales and the steady rise in the number... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower Canadian dollar unlikely to catapult economy The Canadian dollar's decline, which began about a year ago, has reinforced the Bank of Canada's prior view that it's long-awaited export recovery is finally set to go. Over the past year, however... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
