Canada Data Response CPI (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) The unexpected decline in core inflation in July, to 1.7% from 1.8% in June, probably marks a turning point for the second half of this year. With labour market conditions likely to become even more... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Employment data indicate slow growth economy Even after the upward revisions to July's data, the weak trend in employment suggests that some caution should be taken when making any bold inferences about the state of the economy, particularly... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation accelerated somewhat to 4.9% in July, from 4.4% in June. The sales-to-listings ratio suggests that... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Canada's labour market continued to misfire in July. We can't help thinking that if the Bank of Canada had a dual inflation/employment mandate like the Fed, then it would now be seriously considering... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) The monthly external trade balance unexpectedly improved to a surplus of $1.9bn in June, which is the best showing in more than two years. To the extent that the improvement reflects stronger growth... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) May's consensus-matching 0.4% m/m increase in GDP suggests that second-quarter GDP growth will turn out to be close to 2.5% annualised, following the weather-related slowdown to 1.2% in the first... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation likely to peak before end of this year The recent pick-up in inflation has led some people to question the Bank of Canada's neutral stance on interest rates, but we think these concerns are misplaced. The recent increase in headline... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's respectable increase in retail sales volumes combined with the stronger gains in wholesale and manufacturing sales reported last week indicate that the economy regained some lost momentum in... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market conditions worsening The fact that Canada's unemployment rate has only nudged higher in the past few months is astonishing, given the recent weakness in net employment gains. The only reason why the unemployment rate hasn... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slack in labour market has increased Canadian labour market conditions appear to have deteriorated over the past year and a half, even though the unemployment rate has been unchanged. While net employment gains have been unusually weak... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in headline inflation in June, which is largely due to higher food prices, is unlikely to worry the Bank of Canada. Although most measures of underlying inflation also nudged higher... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower interest rates won't prevent slowdown Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The monetary policy statement shows that the Bank of Canada isn't concerned about higher inflation, since the recent rise is due to temporary factors, rather than improvements in economic fundamentals... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The 1.6% m/m increase in the volume of manufacturing sales in May, which was partly due to production recommencing at several petroleum refineries, suggests that GDP grew by 0.2% that month. This in... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation continued to decelerate in June, to 4.4% from 4.6% in May. The past decline in the existing home sales... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unlikely to take aim at rising currency While the Bank of Canada's hopes for an export revival could be thwarted by the recent resurgence in the Canadian dollar, it has few options other than cutting interest rates to try and turn things... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
