Canada Economic Outlook Lower oil price adds to risks Alongside the potential for a sharp correction in the domestic housing market, the recent slump in crude oil prices represents a second risk to the Canadian economic outlook. We expect GDP growth to... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Still waiting for that elusive economic rebound The recent run of weak data confirms that the economy fared even worse in August after barely growing in July. Encouragingly, leading indicators point to a spectacular rebound in September, though it... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada ditches neutral forward guidance The Bank of Canada's decision to drop its neutral forward guidance reflects a change in its policy communications approach and not the interest rate outlook. With less explicit forward guidance to go... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail sales drop back to underlying trend The small decline in August retail sales volumes, combined with the meagre gain in wholesale sales reported earlier this week, supports our view that the economy lost some momentum in the third... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Decline in oil prices still no major threat The further slide in world crude oil prices has prompted speculation that Canada's booming energy sector may soon swing into reverse, dragging the economy under with it. But even if oil prices remain... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) Recent market events, most notably the slump in world oil prices, will keep core inflation in Canada well within the policy target range over the coming months. Accordingly, we expect the Bank of... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The large drop in manufacturing sales volumes in August supports our more conservative view that the economy continued to struggle in that month. If anything, the risks to our below-consensus estimate... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank sitting on the fence At next week's policy meeting we expect the Bank of Canada to remain neutral on the direction and timing of the next move in its policy rate. Although core inflation has rebounded sooner than the Bank... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price slump shouldn't threaten domestic producers Canada's position as a large energy net exporter obviously means that it is exposed to any slump in world oil prices. Should the recent slump in oil prices persist, then that would certainly leave its... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence still short of the mark While the Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey results point to an improvement in the outlook for sales growth, firms still aren't confident enough in that outlook to boost investment... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The stronger than expected 74,100 increase in employment in September, which pushed the unemployment rate down to 6.8%, from 7.0%, suggests that the economy might finally be catching fire. One month... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Falling oil prices to curb investor enthusiasm The recent decline in crude oil prices won't affect the immediate outlook for oil & gas production but, if sustained, lower oil prices could curb investment in Canada's oil sands, particularly as... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble unlikely to prompt a rate hike Housing bubble fears have prompted some commentators to suggest that the Bank of Canada should hike interest rates before it's too late. But since the Bank doesn't typically target asset price... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) Canada's roller-coaster export performance continued in August, with exports tumbling after strong gains in the previous months. Even so, the export recovery still looks broadly intact. Indeed, a... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - GDP (Jul.) Canada's weaker than expected GDP data for July suggest that third-quarter GDP growth might turn out to be slightly weaker than our below-consensus forecast of 2.4% annualised, following the weather... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's flat retail sales volumes combined with the decline in wholesale sales reported last week indicate that the economic recovery lost some momentum at the start of the third quarter. This is... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
