Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2014) The bigger than expected gain in the expenditure-based measure of Q3 GDP means that the Bank of Canada will have a harder time next week defending its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Higher core inflation doesn't change rate outlook The rise in core inflation further above target doesn't change the interest rate outlook, since that increase mainly reflects the temporary effects of a weaker currency, which the Bank believes will... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September's stronger than expected 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales validates the recent strength in employment growth in suggesting that the economy ended the third quarter on a reasonably solid footing... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Financial conditions index overstates prospects for GDP growth The Bank of Canada's revamped monetary conditions index signals that financial conditions looser than they have been for most of the past 15 years. Normally GDP growth would be expected to accelerate... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) The stronger than expected 2.3% core inflation reading in October won't change the Bank of Canada's mind that ultra low interest rates are needed to tackle the weakness in the real economy that would... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Cheaper loonie will help to boost tourism trade The recent decline in the value of the Canadian dollar will provide a much-needed boost to domestic tourism. That support, aided by a steadily improving US economy, could add as much as 0.5 percentage... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Employment bonanza looks like another false start We suspect that the jobs bonanza over the past two months does not signal an upturn in the economy. The impressive 117,200 positions created in September and October was the strongest two-month... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government better positioned to provide stimulus Amidst challenging economic times, the Conservative-led government has fulfilled its pledge to eliminate the Federal budget deficit and is now focused on fortifying its majority government in next... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The Teranet-National Bank measure shows that house price inflation held at 5.4% in October, where it is likely to remain for the rest of this year. Nevertheless, the regional breakdown continues to... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Multi-unit home building still in overdrive The unexpected decline in housing starts in October, which was driven by a sharp drop in the volatile multi-unit segment, is likely to be reversed in the coming months, reigniting concerns about... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Upward revisions to historical GDP don't improve outlook Although the level of GDP over the past three and a half years has been revised noticeably higher, the more recent growth rates of GDP were left largely unchanged. Moreover, the expenditure breakdown... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The stronger than expected employment gain of 43,100 in October, following a massive 74,100 rise in September, is the most encouraging sign yet that the economy may have shifted into a higher gear... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack After a wobble, US equities post another record high The S&P 500 has recovered from a major wobble in October and recently posted another record high. That being said, we don’t think the strong performance is likely to last. The value of the US stock... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's encouraging trade report confirmed that the recovering export sector provided a solid positive contribution of around one percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to persist Indicators show that labour market conditions have deteriorated over the past year or so. The actual amount of slack in the labour market, though, appears to be less than we previously thought. But... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The decline in GDP for August, after the near-stagnation in July, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth may have fallen short of the economy's potential growth rate of 2.0% annualised. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
