Canada Economics Update Collapse in oil prices point to stagnant investment The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey results show that the collapse in oil prices has significantly undermined domestic business confidence and could well result in a near-stagnation in... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in oil price spells danger for Canadian economy The lower global crude oil prices fall, the bigger the negative impact will be for a net exporter like Canada. Alongside the severely overvalued housing market, the collapse in oil prices is a major... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.)2 The 4,300 decline in employment in December is a little disappointing, particularly as it follows a 10,700 fall the month before that. To some extent, however, the declines in the final two months of... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) With crude oil prices still in freefall, the deterioration in the monthly trade balance to a deficit of $0.6bn in November, from $0.3bn, is unfortunately only the start of what could develop into a... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) October's stronger-than-expected GDP growth reflected more broad-based economic activity and has probably set the stage for stronger fourth-quarter annualised GDP growth than the 2.5% forecast by the... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Can the Bank of Canada fight the US Fed? Household imbalances, an uneven export recovery and, more recently, the slump in oil prices are all downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. That's three reasons for the Bank of Canada to... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The unexpected decline in the official core inflation rate to 2.1% in November, from 2.3%, supports the Bank of Canada's cautious neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. With the slump in oil... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside risks multiplying Even with the US economic recovery moving into a higher gear, the outlook for Canada's economy is, at best, mediocre. Furthermore, there is now a significant risk that a perfect storm of a collapse in... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in oil prices leaves housing looking even more exposed The Bank of Canada admitted last week that the housing market has completely overshot and that the overvaluation is somewhere in the range of 10% to 30%. If we had to pick a number, it would be close... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The Teranet-National Bank measure shows that house price inflation was 5.2% in November, down slightly from 5.4%, easily outpacing growth in household incomes. Accordingly, this only adds to our... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices will hold back economy The slump in the crude oil prices to around US$60 per barrel is a serious threat to domestic business investment and future oil production. With the long-run breakeven cost of most oil sands projects... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Elevated pace of home building adding to risk of bust The recent strength in residential building permits relative to housing starts indicate that the pace of home building may accelerate over the near-term. But that only adds to our concern of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Trade (Oct.) The weaker than expected 10,700 decline in employment in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.6%, from 6.5%, can be forgiven since it comes after extraordinarily strong job reports in... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada's last policy statement for the year retained its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. While acknowledging that inflation has been firmer than it expected, the statement... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in core inflation won't be sustained The pick-up in the official core inflation measure this year is partly due to one-off factors. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada also pays close attention to alternative measures of underlying... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Faster household spending growth likely in Q4 Faster income growth and lower gasoline prices bode well for household spending prospects this holiday season. We expect somewhat faster consumption growth of 3.0%. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
