Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) The Teranet-National Bank index shows that house price inflation slowed to 4.7% in January, from 4.9% in December, which reflects the recent softening in housing activity triggered by the slump in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's stronger than expected 35,400 gain in employment was driven entirely by a surge in part-time jobs. Accordingly, we wouldn't read too much into the small decline in the official jobless rate... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The trade deficit widened slightly to C$0.6bn in December, from C$0.3bn, but that increase was actually much smaller than expected. An encouraging rebound in export volumes more than offset the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Lower mortgage rates won't prevent housing correction Lower mortgage rates won't prevent home sales and prices falling sharply in regions directly hit by the slump in oil prices. While they might support housing activity in other key markets, we fear... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household balance sheet risks unevenly spread The latest Survey of Financial Security reveals that household balance sheet risks have increased and the burden of that risk is concentrated among individuals in the 35 to 44 age bracket. Enamoured... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's weaker than expected 0.2% m/m decline in GDP suggests that the economy grew by no more than 2.0% annualised in Q4 last year. That's well below the Bank of Canada's estimate of 2.5%... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to tumble further Softening economic conditions and speculation about another interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada will keep downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Allowing for a modest bounce back in the price... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Further rate cuts possible, but won't help economy much The Bank of Canada's surprise quarter point rate cut to 0.75% last week, which came in response to the collapse in world oil prices, will only have a small positive impact on the economy. Unless oil... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) December's increase in core inflation, to 2.2% from 2.1%, reflects sector-specific factors and pass-through effects of a lower Canadian dollar already judged by the Bank of Canada as temporary. The... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada shocks markets with rate cut The Bank of Canada shocked markets this morning by lowering its policy interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%, in response to the collapse in oil prices that now threatens the outlook for economic growth... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Low oil prices will hit business profits hard Since oil now accounts for half of Canada's production-weighted commodity price index, the collapse in crude oil prices represents a big downside risk to the outlook for business operating profits... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The larger than expected decline in November's manufacturing sales suggests that the economy lost some momentum in the final quarter of last year. We estimate the economy grew by close to 2.5%... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is there a bright side to the collapse in oil prices? The bright side of the recent collapse in oil prices is the sinking Canadian dollar, which will encourage stronger US demand for cheaper Canadian goods and services. More generally, the collapse in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) Although the Teranet-National Bank measure shows house price inflation slowing slightly to 4.9% in December, from 5.2%, price gains are still outpacing growth in household incomes. The upshot is that... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Oil price slump unlikely changes neutral rate outlook As a large net oil exporter, the slump in the price of oil is a worrisome downside risk to Canada's economic outlook, which will be offset only partially by the sinking Canadian dollar. For the time... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
