Climate Economics Monthly Five highlights from February This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in February, including the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank, and the launch of our coverage of the EU carbon... 29th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank continues to wait and see The Bank will be relieved to see the broad-based easing in core inflation in January, but is still likely to use its policy statement and press conference next week to emphasise the need for patience... 28th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly April back in play for first interest rate cut The encouraging January CPI data mean that the Bank of Canada’s April policy meeting is back in play for a potential interest rate cut, although it still seems more likely that the Bank will wait... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) The strong rise in December means that retail sales volumes rose by close to 5% annualised last quarter, supporting the preliminary estimate that GDP growth turned positive again. With sales volumes... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) While the larger-than-expected drop in headline inflation in January was partly driven by weaker than expected energy inflation, the Bank of Canada will be pleased to see the more marked easing in its... 20th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Activity looking reasonably healthy Signs of healthy growth going into the first quarter support our view that the Bank of Canada will probably wait until June to pivot to rate cuts. 16th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Nearing the trough in house prices Although house prices continued to fall in January, lower mortgage rates are beginning to support affordability and stimulate home sales. With the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to positive... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market strength buys the Bank more time The strength of the labour market in January is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada can wait a little longer before it starts to cut interest rates. We now forecast the first interest rate... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan.) Although the sharp rise in employment in January may paint a healthier picture of the labour market than what is under the surface, the Bank of Canada will still be concerned about the renewed decline... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Regional data lift lid on Canada’s climate credentials To mark the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank, this Update takes a closer look at the sub-national climate-related data in the country. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Productivity may finally be improving The upside surprise to fourth-quarter GDP should, somewhat counterintuitively, make the Bank of Canada more confident that inflation is heading back to 2% because it implies that productivity has... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Wage growth set to slow The recent acceleration in the Labour Force Survey measure of wage growth seems to be overstating wage pressures. The other wage indicators, which are normally more reliable, show far lower rates of... 1st February 2024 · 11 mins read
