Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The increase in retail sales in August and flash estimate for another rise in September poses an upside risk to the Bank of Canada’s forecast of household consumption in the third quarter. If realised... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population decline will drag down GDP growth The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank follow its 50bp cut with another? The weak economic backdrop means we still see a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp cut at the next meeting... 23rd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2024) The weak economic backdrop means there is a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp move at the next meeting in... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Week of soft data sets up 50bp cut A string of soft data releases this week should give the Bank of Canada the necessary confidence to step up the pace of monetary easing with a 50bp cut at its meeting next week. 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to accelerate loosening with 50bp cut The Bank of Canada has said that it would be willing to cut interest rates “more quickly” if the data surprised to the downside of its forecasts, which is exactly what has happened since the Bank’s... 16th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2024) Lower mortgage rates have provided a small boost to demand but, with new listings outpacing sales again in September, the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house prices will soon fall... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2024) The 0.8% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August looks consistent with the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged that month, leaving the economy on track for a weaker third quarter... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Why the market is coming round to our BoC rates call 1729699200 We’ve long held the view that the Bank of Canada will need to cut rates at an aggressive pace – and market pricing is quickly aligning with our forecast for a 50-basis point m
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The large downside surprise to headline inflation in September and muted monthly gains in the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures support our view that the Bank of Canada will choose a more... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly October meeting will be a close call The stronger labour market data makes the Bank of Canada’s decision in October a close call but, with upside inflation risks fading, and demand still very weak, we think t he Bank will want to bring... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2024) The stronger rise in employment and fall in the unemployment rate in September were largely due to a seasonal quirk, as the weak summer jobs market meant that fewer young workers left positions than... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank be ready to cut by 50bp this month? With the inflation battle seemingly won, the Bank of Canada has indicated that it is prepared to cut interest rates more quickly if warranted, with that decision hinging on developments in business... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2024) Despite the trade deficit widening in August, developments earlier in the quarter means that net trade looks set to support GDP growth in the third quarter. With most of that positive contribution... 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
