Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe increased in March and suggest that the region’s growth prospects have brightened. But sentiment is still at depressed levels... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-China ties in full swing, Ukraine’s IMF deal Russia-China relations were on full show this week as China's President Xi visited Moscow and the two counties announced a raft of measures to increase ties over the coming years. China has helped... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Global bank turmoil another headwind to Em Europe The turmoil in the global banking sector has not spread to Emerging Europe, but the focus is back on the health of the region’s banks given the not-so-distant memory of the 2008/09 banking crises that... 23rd March 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly SVB, Credit Suisse & the potential implications for EE Economies in Emerging Europe (EE) are particularly vulnerable to a sharp weakening of capital inflows if concerns about the health of the global banking system were to escalate. Investors revised down... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish DM central banks may delay rate cuts in CEE The growing expectation that interest rates in developed markets will rise further and stay higher for longer than previously anticipated isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that central banks in... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdowns and NPLs: lessons from the past Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have risen by as much as 4-5%-pts during non-banking crisis downturns in EMs in the past. This time around, there are reasons to think that the increase will be... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech koruna strength, gloomy GDP breakdowns The recent strength of the Czech koruna, which hit a 14-year high this week, adds to a number of disinflationary forces that are currently taking hold in the country. And despite hawkish noises from... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB getting close to phasing out its stabilisation tools Hungary’s central bank (MNB) reiterated the message that it’s unlikely to cut its base rate anytime soon, when it left that rate on hold again today (at 13.00%). That said, the MNB offered some signs... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators continued to rebound across Central and Eastern Europe in February, with our regional weighted measure hitting an eight-month high. It is broadly consistent with... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack One year into the war in Ukraine The first year of the war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the country’s economy and left it highly dependent on financing from allies. Russia’s economy has contracted too, but it weathered... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Wage pressures will take time to alleviate in CEE Signs of softening labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe support our view that intense wage pressures in the region will ease in the coming months. Even so, we still think that wage growth... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2022) The falls in GDP in Central and Eastern Europe shown in the Q4 figures probably mark the worst of the regional downturn, but we still think that activity will (at best) only stagnate over the first... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s earthquake, Russia’s budget, CEE inflation While the human losses from the earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria this week are first and foremost in everyone’s minds, we think the overall economic impact on Turkey’s economy will be more... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
