Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2023) Q3 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed a mixed performance across the region, but as a whole CEE economies appear to be past the worst of the downturn. With households’ real... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE sovereign debt dynamics becoming more fragile Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) need to deliver significant fiscal tightening over the coming years to prevent public debt ratios from grinding higher. The risk of an imminent... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks in EE facing their own set of challenges The string of central bank meetings across Emerging Europe this week highlighted the unique challenges that policymakers across the region are currently facing, but one common thread in all countries... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its base rate, from 13.00% to 12.25%, today suggests that policymakers are sticking to aggressive monetary easing. Our working... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Slovakia election, Q3 Outlook The Hungarian and Czech central banks maintained fairly hawkish communications at their meetings this week, but we still think that interest rates will fall sharply in both countries by mid-2024. That... 29th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recoveries across CEE, but Russia and Turkey to slow Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB entering the second phase of the easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered another 100bp interest rate cut (to 13.00%) and simplified its monetary policy toolkit at today’s meeting, paving the way for the second phase of the easing... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the top of its interest rate corridor, by 250bp, today is a first step in what is likely to be a shift in the monetary policy framework that will... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in 2024. Inflation pressures look set to keep building and further interest... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: interest rate squeeze likely to reverse soon There’s a lot of uncertainty about how much impact monetary tightening has had in the global economy so far, but in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the hit to households has already been significant... 18th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-North Korea friendship, CEE external positions President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un strengthened their relationship this week, but we doubt the discussions will yield any meaningful benefits for Russia's economy or materially boost... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update End of Budapest office underperformance in sight The Budapest office market has underperformed in recent years, with rents lagging the rest of the region. While some weakness is likely for the rest of this year, the outlook is improving. With a more... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE inflation falling, but a long way back to target Sharp falls in inflation mean that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are on the cusp of a broad-based monetary loosening cycle. That said, we think that the legacy of the inflation... 5th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas price volatility, Romania’s fiscal slippage The jump in wholesale European natural gas prices in the early part of this week doesn’t mean the energy crisis in the region is coming back to life. For economies in Central and Eastern Europe, it... 1st September 2023 · 7 mins read
