Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recoveries across CEE, but Russia and Turkey to slow Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB entering the second phase of the easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered another 100bp interest rate cut (to 13.00%) and simplified its monetary policy toolkit at today’s meeting, paving the way for the second phase of the easing... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the top of its interest rate corridor, by 250bp, today is a first step in what is likely to be a shift in the monetary policy framework that will... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in 2024. Inflation pressures look set to keep building and further interest... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: interest rate squeeze likely to reverse soon There’s a lot of uncertainty about how much impact monetary tightening has had in the global economy so far, but in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the hit to households has already been significant... 18th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-North Korea friendship, CEE external positions President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un strengthened their relationship this week, but we doubt the discussions will yield any meaningful benefits for Russia's economy or materially boost... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update End of Budapest office underperformance in sight The Budapest office market has underperformed in recent years, with rents lagging the rest of the region. While some weakness is likely for the rest of this year, the outlook is improving. With a more... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE inflation falling, but a long way back to target Sharp falls in inflation mean that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are on the cusp of a broad-based monetary loosening cycle. That said, we think that the legacy of the inflation... 5th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas price volatility, Romania’s fiscal slippage The jump in wholesale European natural gas prices in the early part of this week doesn’t mean the energy crisis in the region is coming back to life. For economies in Central and Eastern Europe, it... 1st September 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in August and suggest that the region may be on the road to recovery. What’s more, firms’... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) announced another 100bp cut to its quick deposit rate (the key policy rate at the moment) today, to 14.00%, and we think that this rate will be cut by another 100bp... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia, Turkey and Israel had a strong first half to the year, but growth across Central... 22nd August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2023) Q2 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally came in below expectations and suggest that the region continued to suffer the ill-effects from high inflation and interest rates last... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up? Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
