Emerging Europe Chart Pack Twin-speed recovery taking shape (Jun 10) The recovery in manufacturing across Emerging Europe has for the most part been pretty impressive. With the notable exceptions of Romania and Bulgaria, industrial output is now growing at doubledigit... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary go it alone? Hungary can probably survive without a new IMF/EU programme for the remainder of this year. But we suspect it will eventually be forced to re-engage with the Fund either later this year or early in... 23rd July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: IMF deal breaks down This weekend’s breakdown in talks between the Hungarian government and the IMF rounds off a dire start for the new Fidesz government. While Hungary can get by without IMF funds for now, Hungarian... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation pressures still thin on the ground (Jul 10) Most countries in the region are on the road to recovery, but the large amount of spare capacity created by last year’s recession means that on the whole the outlook for inflation remains extremely... 16th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary holds rates once again, but still no hikes in sight There are increasing signs that Hungarian policymakers have reached the end of the monetary easing cycle. But with the economy facing a tough time over the coming years, inflation pressures will be... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets still overstating pace of tightening (Jun 10) Marek Belka was recently sworn in as the new President of the National Bank of Poland, and his impressive credentials as a former head of the IMF’s European Department make him a safe pair of hands... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone crisis adds to recovery headwinds (Q2 2010) Problems in the euro-zone’s periphery will exacerbate the twin-speed recovery already underway in Emerging Europe. No country would escape unscathed from a full-blown crisis in Western Europe, but... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary still walking a fiscal tightrope The announcement of a renewed fiscal squeeze in Hungary should help to ease market fears of a ‘Greek style’ crisis in the country. But the policies unveiled earlier today sidestep the underlying need... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Worrying early signs from Hungary’s new government Hungary’s new government has got off to a disappointing start, with early signs suggesting that economic populism will take priority over much-needed fiscal reform. 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q1 GDP data a mixed bag (May 10) First quarter GDP data, released by most countries over the past month or so, paint a mixed picture. The highly open economies of Central Europe – notably Slovakia – continue to rebound at a fairly... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Politics comes into play in Hungary (May 10) Concerns that the new government in Hungary will jeopardise the independence of the National Bank appear to be coming to fruition. While much remains uncertain, it seems clear that PM Orban will now... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the outlook for Hungarian commercial property improved? While recent news on the Hungarian economy has been surprisingly positive, we are not yet convinced that a sustainable economic recovery is underway. Among other things, Hungary’s fragile banking... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion risks from Greece high and rising (Apr 10) Concerns over the deepening crisis in Greece have weighed on financial markets across the region over the past couple of weeks. While no country has escaped, the contagion risks appear greatest in... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates cut again as Fidesz secures two-thirds majority The markets’ favourable reaction to Fidesz’s landslide election victory in Hungary will have been a key factor behind today’s decision by the National Bank (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 5.25... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Changes at the top do not change outlook for policy (Apr 10) Both Poland and the Czech Republic are set to announce new Central Bank governors over the coming months. But we suspect this will do little to alter the policy bias in either country. Poland will be... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fidesz romps to victory, but will inherit fiscal frailties The markets have welcomed Fidesz’s landslide victory in yesterday’s election in Hungary. But with a distinct lack of policy detail from the party so far, we remain only cautiously optimistic that its... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
