Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian and Romanian commercial property markets to lag behind The latest RICS global survey presents a more optimistic outlook for capital value growth in Hungary and Romania than our current forecasts imply. But we think that surveyors may be overstating the... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to look for from Hungary's spending cuts The Hungarian government is due to begin debating a “structural revamp” of the public finances in the coming weeks, which will entail substantial budget cuts. A first reading of the Growth and... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hikes again, but all eyes back on fiscal policy The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) this afternoon voted to hike interest rates by 25bps for the third consecutive month (to 6.00%). The outlook remains highly uncertain, but on balance today’s move... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the outlook for Hungarian inflation really so bad? We do not believe that the outlook for Hungarian inflation is as troubling as the National Bank now seems to think. Inflation is still above target and has been rising recent months, but the pick-up... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian risk factors on the rise The recovery in Hungary may have a less solid base than some of the recent news flow might suggest. In any event, the positive economic news needs to be offset against the growing political risks and... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A two speed 2011 2010 has been a year of recovery for Emerging Europe. This process should continue in 2011 but there are at least three important points for investors to bear in mind. First, growth is unlikely to... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy to get creative in 2011 For much of Emerging Europe growth concerns continue to outweigh inflation worries. Accordingly, monetary policy will remain accommodative in most countries next year. The exception to this is Turkey... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recovery continues but divergences set to widen in 2011 Emerging markets as a whole are likely to outperform the developed world by a wide margin over the next couple of years but Emerging Europe is still facing a twin speed recovery. While some economies... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q3 GDP data reaffirm twin speed recovery (Nov 10) Emerging markets as a whole are likely to outperform the developed world by a wide margin over the next couple of years, but Emerging Europe is still facing a twin speed recovery. This was borne out... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rate hike reflects political, not economic, concerns The outlook for inflation does not offer a particularly convincing justification for this afternoon’s surprise decision to raise Hungarian interest rates. Instead, we think the move is best viewed as... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will falls in Budapest retail yields be extended any further? Given our fairly downbeat view on Hungary’s consumer sector outlook, the continued above-average performance of the Budapest retail investment market is difficult to rationalise. In our view, the weak... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's 2011 Budget: an exercise in smoke and mirrors It looks increasingly likely that the Hungarian government will meet, or even outperform, its targets for reducing the budget deficit over the coming years. But with temporary revenue raising measures... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC split down the middle The acceleration in headline inflation seen across Emerging Europe in recent months has been driven predominantly by a rise in food prices. This follows droughts in Russia and widespread flooding... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack 'Currency wars' bypass Emerging Europe (Oct 10) Concerns that a rapid influx of capital into emerging markets may sow the seeds of the next bubble do not really apply in Eastern Europe. This is because, so far, at least, capital inflows to the... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey steps up its 'exit strategy' (Oct 10) It has been a long time coming, but policymakers in parts of the region are gearing up to begin tightening monetary policy. The Central Bank of Turkey accelerated its so-called ‘exit strategy’ from... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian fiscal efforts do not go far enough The Hungarian government last night announced a fresh set of fiscal austerity measures, which should allow it to at least come close to meeting next year’s budget deficit target of 3% of GDP. But its... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
