Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation remains weak January’s inflation data in Emerging Europe has been a particularly mixed bunch, reflecting the impact of various indirect tax changes as well as the tail end of the commodity price shock a year ago... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary bank plan unlikely to trigger revival in bank lending The “collateralised credit facility” unveiled by the National Bank of Hungary today may help to ease the maturity mismatch between banks’ assets and liabilities but it will do nothing to address the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank deleveraging still a threat to growth Fears that euro-zone banks might suddenly withdraw their funding to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe have eased markedly over the past month, due in large part to the success of the ECB’s long-term... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fresh recession in the Czech Republic weighing on property outlook News from the Czech Republic this morning revealed that it slipped back into a technical recession in the second half of 2011. This has had little meaningful impact on the commercial property market... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth still set to disappoint in 2012 The raft of fourth quarter GDP data released this morning contained something for everyone: while Hungary defied the odds and grew in the final quarter of the year, the Czech economy contracted... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic likely to be the first in recession A raft of Q4 GDP data for Emerging Europe, due next week, is likely to show that growth slowed sharply across the region. It appears that the Czech economy ended 2011 in recession and the Hungarian... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to signs of stabilisation January’s manufacturing PMI data provide some evidence that the slump in industry in Emerging Europe’s most open economies is bottoming out. However, the Czech and Hungarian readings are still... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears will fade in 2012 Recent comments from central bankers suggest that inflation is still high on the list of concerns for policymakers in the region. However, the unwinding of the last year’s commodity price shock... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Euro-zone departures to exacerbate the downturn The euro-zone stands on the brink of a deep recession which will encompass all member states. Emerging European economies have less scope to loosen policy in response to a drop in euro-zone output... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rally but economic data still gloomy The improvement in global risk appetite seen in recent weeks has ensured that financial markets across Emerging Europe have enjoyed a decent start to 2012. Yet we remain doubtful that this rebound can... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rates on hold, but problems ahead The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept interest rates on hold today on the back of easing strains in the financial markets. This has come against the backdrop of talks with the IMF and EU apparently... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary plays chicken with the markets This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Emerging Europe Watch. This will summarise the major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Vienna 2.0 shaping up to be a damp squib Yesterday’s “Vienna Initiative” meeting adds to our fears that euro-zone policymakers are now less willing to step in to help Emerging Europe than in 2008/09. Of course, much depends on how events pan... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Hungary’s problems undermine other CEE property markets? Fears that the recent sell-off in Hungarian assets might spread to commercial property markets across CEE are probably overdone. But in reality it will be hard to distinguish contagion effects from... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How great are contagion risks from Hungary? The recent sell-off in Hungarian assets has turned the spotlight on other Emerging European assets. Even though any contagion risks are likely to be limited, 2012 promises to be a tough year for the... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
