Euro-zone departures to exacerbate the downturn The euro-zone stands on the brink of a deep recession which will encompass all member states. Emerging European economies have less scope to loosen policy in response to a drop in euro-zone output... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rally but economic data still gloomy The improvement in global risk appetite seen in recent weeks has ensured that financial markets across Emerging Europe have enjoyed a decent start to 2012. Yet we remain doubtful that this rebound can... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rates on hold, but problems ahead The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept interest rates on hold today on the back of easing strains in the financial markets. This has come against the backdrop of talks with the IMF and EU apparently... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary plays chicken with the markets This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Emerging Europe Watch. This will summarise the major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Vienna 2.0 shaping up to be a damp squib Yesterday’s “Vienna Initiative” meeting adds to our fears that euro-zone policymakers are now less willing to step in to help Emerging Europe than in 2008/09. Of course, much depends on how events pan... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Hungary’s problems undermine other CEE property markets? Fears that the recent sell-off in Hungarian assets might spread to commercial property markets across CEE are probably overdone. But in reality it will be hard to distinguish contagion effects from... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How great are contagion risks from Hungary? The recent sell-off in Hungarian assets has turned the spotlight on other Emerging European assets. Even though any contagion risks are likely to be limited, 2012 promises to be a tough year for the... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary starts talks with IMF but obstacles ahead Talks between Hungary and the IMF are now underway. And with recent comments from the government suggesting that it has discarded its objections to accepting IMF help, market sentiment has improved... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian forint falls to record low, but IMF help looks elusive With the forint falling to a record low against the euro today, the news from Hungary goes from bad to worse, coming on the back of the breakdown in negotiations with the IMF and EU last month, a... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: further tightening on the cards The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) hiked interest rates today, as expected. But with the government at loggerheads with the central bank, talks with the IMF seemingly having broken down and fresh... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Sliding back into recession The past month has brought further evidence – if any were needed – that Emerging Europe will not escape unscathed from the gathering storm in the euro-zone. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the region’s most... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation threat is not as big as many fear Headline inflation has picked up across much of Emerging Europe. But we don’t think this threat is as big as some commentators are suggesting since underlying inflationary pressures are subdued. With... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s underlying inflation still weak On the face of it at least, the latest rise in inflation in Central Europe is deeply worrying, not least since it has come against a backdrop of slowing growth. But a closer look at the data reveals... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro crisis to trigger recessions further east The deepening turmoil in the euro-zone is likely to drag large parts of Emerging Europe into recession over the next year. Financial sector vulnerabilities mean that recession risks are greatest in... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing sliding into recession November’s manufacturing PMI data brought further evidence – if any was needed – that the more open economies in Emerging Europe are following their Western European neighbours into recession. Even... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack European property market is running out of bright spots Led by Poland and Russia, commercial property markets in CEE have been a relatively bright spot for investment in Europe. Yet, even here, growth in quarterly investment volumes has begun to slow. And... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
