Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU’s new fiscal rules, CNB joins the rate cutting club EU finance ministers agreed on a new set of fiscal rules this week, but this doesn’t change our view that concerns about public debt dynamics will grow in parts of Central and Eastern Europe over the... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 75bp again today (to 10.75%), and we think it will probably continue to lower rates at this pace over its next few meetings. However, we expect... 19th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Assessing Russia's war hit, change of guard in Poland Analysis by the US Treasury Department published this week gained a lot of attention for highlighting that Russia’s economy is now 5% smaller due to the war and sanctions than it otherwise would have... 15th December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation won’t follow euro-zone to target in 2024 Investors increased their expectations for interest rate cuts by the ECB after November’s soft euro-zone inflation print this week, but in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the latest... 1st December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November, and suggest that activity in the region has continued to recover in Q4... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by another 75bp (to 11.50%) as expected today, and we think it will continue to lower rates in similar steps until the end of Q1. That said, with the... 21st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2023) Q3 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed a mixed performance across the region, but as a whole CEE economies appear to be past the worst of the downturn. With households’ real... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE sovereign debt dynamics becoming more fragile Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) need to deliver significant fiscal tightening over the coming years to prevent public debt ratios from grinding higher. The risk of an imminent... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks in EE facing their own set of challenges The string of central bank meetings across Emerging Europe this week highlighted the unique challenges that policymakers across the region are currently facing, but one common thread in all countries... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its base rate, from 13.00% to 12.25%, today suggests that policymakers are sticking to aggressive monetary easing. Our working... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Slovakia election, Q3 Outlook The Hungarian and Czech central banks maintained fairly hawkish communications at their meetings this week, but we still think that interest rates will fall sharply in both countries by mid-2024. That... 29th September 2023 · 9 mins read
