Emerging Europe Economics Update A grim set of Q3 data Third quarter GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe make for pretty grim reading. Output contracted on a quarterly basis in three of the five countries that reported figures and the business surveys... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: markets to sanguine on local government debt risk A restructuring of local government debt in Hungary is by no means certain and, even if it did occur, would entail smaller losses for the banking sector than a similar restructuring of private sector... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The slowdown spreads Third quarter GDP data, which are due to be released by most countries over the coming month, are likely to make fairly grim reading. We estimate that regional growth slowed to around 1.5-2.0% y/y in... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing still in recession The latest PMIs show that manufacturing in the highly open economies of Central Europe remains in recession due in large part to falling external demand. By contrast, the Turkish PMI data provide... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle running out of room Hungary continued to cut interest rates today, but financial vulnerabilities and a lack of progress towards an IMF deal mean that there is limited room for further easing. Accordingly, we don’t think... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Economic slowdown spreads to strongest performers The slowdown across Emerging Europe has intensified in recent months. We reckon that the region’s economy expanded at an annual pace of around 1.5-2.0% in Q3, down from 2.5% in Q2 and an average of 4... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian government too optimistic on deficit reduction Earlier today we attended a meeting with Hungarian Minister of Economy, Zoltan Csefalvay. We left with the impression that the government’s plans for deficit reduction are still too optimistic and... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's austerity without growth isn’t working The raft of amendments to Hungary’s 2013 budget announced late last week contained not only fresh austerity measures, but also amended contentious policies that had previously been an obstacle to an... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks step up to the plate Central banks in Emerging Europe are starting to respond to the economic downturn that has spread across the region. Interest rates were cut this month in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Turkey, and... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts rates, Poland set to follow Hungary cut interest rates again today, but a combination of familiar financial vulnerabilities and a failure to make meaningful progress on an IMF deal means that the room for further significant... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still room for Budapest office yields to underperform We see no reason to expect the wide spread that has emerged between prime office yields in Budapest and those in Prague and Warsaw to narrow anytime soon. Instead, Hungary’s relatively weak economic... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Orban scuppers IMF deal (again) Today’s statement by Hungarian PM Victor Orban that his government will reject the conditions attached to an IMF programme is unlikely to spell the end of negotiations between the two parties, but it... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s policy conundrum Policymakers in Russia are likely to find themselves in something of a bind over the coming months – while growth is starting to slow, inflation looks set to accelerate. For now it seems that... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Domestic austerity continues to bite A raft of GDP data released this month showed that growth slowed across most of Emerging Europe in the second quarter. Hungary and the Czech Republic were the worst performing economies, as both sank... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts rates but further easing likely to be limited The National Bank of Hungary’s surprise decision to cut interest rates today suggests that further easing could be on the way. But unless and until an IMF/EU deal is agreed, anything more than a... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region’s star performers set to lose their shine The slowdown in Emerging Europe in recent months is a sign of things to come, and we expect a number of countries to spend the next year in recession. The most obvious concern on the horizon remains... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
